SPC AC 130056

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0756 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

   Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
   TEXAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of north
   Texas and southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex late this evening.
   Large hail and severe gusts should be the primary hazards.

   ...Discussion...
   Thunderstorm activity continues across portions of east-central
   Texas as of 00z. This activity has struggled to maintain intensity,
   likely owing to dry mid-levels and surface inhibition. The mid-level
   wave continues to move across this region with forcing for ascent
   continuing over the next few hours, with potential for additional
   development across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas. 

   Ongoing storms are moving into a region with relatively better
   moisture, with dew points in the 60s to mid 50s and an axis of
   sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) across eastern Texas into western
   Louisiana. With the loss of daytime heating, storms may continue to
   struggle, however, gusty winds and hail will remain possible given
   the steep low to mid-level lapse rates and ample shear. The 00z RAOB
   from Shreveport, LA shows minimal low level inversion for most
   unstable parcels, however, MLCIN remains present below 700 mb. 

   A similar thermodynamic profile is noted further north from Little
   Rock, AR, with strong MLCIN below 700 mb and dry mid-levels.
   Mid-level cooling aloft is just now spreading eastward across the
   Red River in southern Oklahoma/Texas which may aid in more organized
   development. This area into western Arkansas will be the most likely
   region of additional development over the next couple of hours.
   Should more robust supercell development occur, the risk for large
   damaging hail and damaging wind will be possible.

   ..Thornton/Darrow/Guyer.. 03/13/2025

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