SPC AC 150101

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0801 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

   Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight
   across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the
   Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of
   which could be strong to intense, widespread severe gusts ranging
   from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all
   appear likely.

   ...01z Update...

   Intense mid-level jet is translating across northeast OK/southwest
   MO early this evening. This feature will advance toward southern
   Lake MI later tonight as the upper low lifts into northern IA.
   Impressive 12hr height falls, and shear are noted ahead of this
   cyclone. With 0-3 ESRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, thermodynamics may be
   the primary modulator in convective mode this evening/over night.
   Over the last few hours, richer boundary-layer moisture is beginning
   to surge into the southeastern influence of this ejecting trough.
   Lower 60s surface dew points have advanced to near the MO/AR border,
   and this is boosting instability within the aforementioned
   environment that strongly favors supercells. Several supercells are
   in the process of maturing along a corridor from central MO into
   northwest AR. Latest thinking is this activity will continue to
   evolve and grow upscale. Multiple long-lived supercells are expected
   within an environment very favorable for strong-intense tornadoes,
   especially from eastern MO, south into MS.

   Farther north, damaging winds remain likely with strongly-forced
   convection as it surges northeast across the mid-MS Valley into
   southeast MN/southern WI. Overall, convective complex will steadily
   shift downstream overnight as LLJ strengthens across eastern IL/IN
   into southwest lower MI.

   ..Darrow.. 03/15/2025

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