Finance & economics | Danger signs

America’s recession signals are flashing red. Don’t believe them

We assess a range of measures

An illustration of scattered sheets of paper and booklets showing charts with jagged indicator graph lines.
Illustration: Rose Wong

An early-warning system for recessions would be worth trillions of dollars. Governments could dole out stimulus at just the right time; investors could turn a nice profit. Unfortunately, the process for calling a recession is too slow to be useful. America’s arbiter, the National Bureau of Economic Research, can take months to decide. Other countries simply look at gdp data, which emerge with a lag.

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This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “Rules are rules”

From the August 24th 2024 edition

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