Finance & economics | Free exchange

Shrinking populations mean less growth and a more fractious world

Politicians must act now to avert the worst

Illustration of an old person with a walker with a globe as a head
Illustration: Álvaro Bernis

If current forecasts are accurate, 2064 will be the first year in centuries when fewer babies are born than people die. Birth rates in India will fall to below the level seen in America last year. Even with immigration and successful pro-natal policies, America’s population will only have a little bit of growth left. By 2100 there will be many fewer migrants left to attract. The world’s fertility rate will hit 1.7. Just two Pacific islands and four African countries will manage to reproduce above replacement level.

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This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “The old world”

From the May 25th 2024 edition

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