SPC AC 010536

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST
   TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to
   develop across the central and southern High Plains region,
   including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This
   activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into
   the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail,
   and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks.

   ...Great Plains/Big Bend of Texas...

   Westerlies remain somewhat disjointed early this morning with the
   primary corridor of stronger flow located near the US/Canadian
   border. Early this morning, a distinct southern branch is evident at
   low latitudes extending across northern Mexico into the northern
   Gulf Basin. This flow regime has contributed to multiple
   thunderstorm clusters the last few days. Much of this activity
   originates off the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies,
   then spreads across the central/southern Plains into the MS Valley
   where it encounters less buoyancy and weakens. A variation of this
   evolution is once again expected later today as strong
   boundary-layer heating is forecast from far west TX, north across
   the central High Plains.

   Early this morning, a slow-moving MCS was propagating southeast
   across the TX South Plains. Models have struggled handling these
   complexes and latest HREF guidance quickly dissipates this activity
   early in the period. It's not entirely clear the remnant MCS would
   even be severe at the beginning of the period but robust updrafts
   could develop along the leading edge of this convection by early
   afternoon over east TX/LA. Gusty winds would be the most likely
   threat.

   Of potentially more significance, scattered thunderstorms are once
   again expected to evolve by late afternoon in the lee of the higher
   terrain. A weak short-wave trough is forecast to approach far West
   TX and this feature will likely contribute to substantial convection
   evolving deep into west TX/Big Bend region. Wind profiles favor
   supercells and very large hail may be noted with these storms. An
   MCS could evolve which would propagate toward the middle Rio Grande
   Valley later in the evening.

   Another region where convection may be more concentrated is across
   the central High Plains. Strong surface heating will result in
   convective temperatures being breached by 21z across northeast CO.
   Scattered supercells should develop northeast into central NE by
   early evening as LLJ is expected to increase markedly into this
   portion of the plains after sunset. Large hail, some potentially in
   excess of 2 inches, along with severe gusts are possible.

   ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/01/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z