SPC AC 311630

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

   Valid 311630Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...THE ARK-LA-MISS...AND
   PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be
   possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High
   Plains, from southwest Texas to the Texas coast, and across the
   Ark-La-Miss.

   ...Synopsis...
   Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level
   shortwave trough over the Red River and this feature is forecast to
   move east to the Ark-La-Miss by early tonight.  An MCV was noted
   over central MS this morning with likely another convectively
   augmented circulation over the lower Sabine Valley.  Farther north,
   broad cyclonic mid-level flow will remain centered over the Dakotas
   and displaced with a residual frontal zone draped from MN
   southwestward through NE and into the CO High Plains.  

   ...Southern half of TX into the lower MS Valley...
   Expansive MCS this morning over the TX coast will continue to push
   southeast into the Gulf.  The northern extent of the MCS has moved
   into southwest LA late this morning.  Visible-satellite imagery
   shows a large cirrus canopy over the Arklatex.  The airmass will
   become moderately unstable across southeast/eastern AR in areas void
   of thicker cloud cover and to the northwest of a weakening MCV.  It
   seems some rejuvenation of thunderstorms will occur on the leading
   edge of outflow over LA and eventually farther north into AR later
   this afternoon.  Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the
   primary severe hazard with the more intense thunderstorms.  

   Farther southwest, a capped and destabilizing airmass to the south
   of an outflow boundary from the earlier MCS, will become strongly
   unstable as heating contributes to 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE from
   south-central TX into the Trans-Pecos.  Long, straight-line
   hodographs will favor supercells.  Main limiting factor will be
   isolated storm coverage.  An attendant hail/wind risk will likely
   accompany the stronger storms later this afternoon/evening.  

   ...Central/Southern High Plains...
   Not much change in thinking from the previous outlook update.  A
   weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and
   cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther
   south toward southeast CO).  Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE
   of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will
   support supercells capable of producing large hail, while severe
   gusts will also be possible with any upscale growth into small
   clusters.  A couple of storm clusters could persist into the
   overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to
   a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection.

   ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/31/2024

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