SPC AC 040052

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0752 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024

   Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
   central and southern Plains. Large hail and damaging winds are the
   primary risks.

   ...01z Outlook...

   Cool mid-level profiles, and steep lapse rates contributed to the
   evolution of supercell clusters over much of northwest TX into the
   Edwards Plateau region. This activity is beginning to overturn much
   of the buoyancy across northwest TX, hence the strongest updrafts
   are now propagating southeast across the Edwards Plateau along an
   instability axis characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg.
   Additionally, strong convection has developed just west of the
   international border and is approaching Eagle Pass. Will adjust
   severe probabilities into the middle Rio Grande Valley to account
   for this activity spreading east of the River.

   Farther north, organized band of thunderstorms has developed along a
   cold front that is surging southeast across south-central
   NE-northwest KS-northeast CO. In addition to a few dryline
   supercells over western KS, this complex will continue to propagate
   southeast aided in large part to the surging cold front. Given the
   organization of this activity, and momentum, will extend higher
   severe probs a bit downstream to account for wind/hail threat with
   this squall line.

   ..Darrow.. 05/04/2024

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z