SPC AC 031637

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024

   Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
   WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible over
   parts of west-central Texas this afternoon and evening.

   ...Southern Great Plains...
   Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very
   moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual
   effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South
   Plains into central TX.  Near and south of the boundary, low-level
   moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several
   raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large
   moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon.  A
   north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating
   zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development
   later this afternoon/evening.  Insolation through peak heating will
   contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg
   MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area.  The nose of a westerly
   250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this
   afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs.  Expecting heating
   and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface
   boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon.  Widely
   scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the
   early evening according to the latest model guidance.  Large to
   giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and
   severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending
   southeastward into portions of the Big Country.  Depending on
   storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level
   wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty
   at these scales precludes a delineated risk area.  Some upscale
   growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this
   evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late.

   ...Central Plains...
   No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk
   area across the central Plains.  Though nowhere nearly as moist as
   the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist
   advection should support a secondary relative max in severe
   potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of
   eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE.  Convection
   should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence
   maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened
   by favorable diurnal heating.  Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low
   50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates,
   500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. 
   Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for
   organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and
   initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. 
   Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with
   time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust
   potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the
   Missouri Valley region.

   ..Smith/Barnes/Squitieri.. 05/03/2024

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