Spanish People’s Party would win snap elections against Socialists, poll predicts

The Spanish People’s Party (PP/EPP) would outperform ruling Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist Party (PSOE/S&D) if general elections were held in Spain today, according to a poll by private research agency 40dB.

According to the study commissioned by Spanish media, the PP, the main opposition force in parliament, would lead Sánchez’s PSOE by the largest margin since the early general election on 23 July 2023, which the right-wing party’s leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo won — though he did not gather the majority needed to govern.

Since the survey conducted by 40dB in March, the PP has been forecast to gain 0.3% support (bringing it to a projected 35.5% of the vote) and 2.5 points in voting intention compared to the 2023 elections.

Conversely, the PSOE continues its “slow decline,” losing 0.7% of projected support and polling at 30.0% of the vote, which is equivalent to 1.7 fewer points won than last year’s election.

The poll reveals that there is currently an “incipient transfer of votes from the PSOE to the PP,” and some 6.5% of PSOE voters are expected to support Núñez Feijóo’s party in the next national elections, which will likely be held in 2027 or 2028.

Additionally, despite the apparent unity of the coalition government between PSOE and the left-wing party Sumar, led by Labour Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Díaz, many analysts doubt whether the Spanish PM will stand the full four-year term in office or bring forward the elections.

On the other hand, according to the 40dB poll, the far-right party Vox would maintain its current third place in parliament with 33 seats, while Sumar would suffer a hard blow, losing some of the 31 seats it currently holds.

The left-wing Podemos, a former member of the Sumar platform, from which it split after a bitter internal dispute, would maintain a 2.9% share of the vote and would remain the fifth political force, with five seats, the poll revealed.

(Fernando Heller | EuroEFE.Euractiv.es)

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