‘Managing’ Jamal Murray’s injury now the game within the game for Nuggets

DENVER, CO - FEBRUARY 22: Jamal Murray #27 of the Denver Nuggets looks on during the game against the Washington Wizards on February 22, 2024 at the Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images)
By John Hollinger
Feb 24, 2024

PORTLAND – Michael Malone made an interesting word choice before Denver’s win against the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday.

The head coach of the defending champion Nuggets said they were “managing” star guard Jamal Murray’s shin splints and that’s why he was sitting out the back-to-back in Portland. There was no mention of, say, “healing.”

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“It’s shin splints,” said Malone, “and everything he’s dealing with right now, every time he plays it’s gonna be an issue. This is not second night of a back-to-back ‘resting.’ He is managing an injury. It’s just something we’re just going to have to find a way to figure out. “

Malone noted that the Nuggets only have two back-to-backs left the rest of the season (Feb. 28-29 vs. Sacramento and Miami and April 9-10 vs. Utah and Minnesota), so “hopefully we can find a way to get through and not have that worsen for Jamal.”

When I pressed him on his word choice, he clarified that Murray would have to sit out for an extended period to truly back get to 100 percent, and that he might be playing through some pain the rest of the way.

A brief visit to the medical office of Dr. Google shows why this might be the case. Shin splints — er, “bilateral tibia inflammation” on the injury report — are basically pain from repetitive stress on the shin and surrounding muscles, and can lead to stress reactions or stress fractures if not treated or managed. The only cure is rest, but the Nuggets aren’t in a position to offer a ton of it.

“It could heal, but that means he’s not playing,” said Malone. “So I think it’s more managing, because we need Jamal to play. And he’s aware of that. We have constant communication (between) Jamal, myself and Steve Short, the director of our sport science group. Looking at where we’re at, what we’re going into, and what is the best course of action to try to manage those injuries and symptoms that he has. “

“I’m sure it’s very painful,” Malone continued, “and the more he plays —  and Jamal is gonna be a guy who is going to play upwards 35, 36 minutes a night. We just have to try to limit his load as much as possible — shootarounds, practices, whatever we’re doing — to make sure that game days are holy and he can be available for as many of them as possible.”

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This situation also, incidentally, would seem to have some implications for Murray’s potential availability for Team Canada in the Olympics this July, especially if the Nuggets once again are playing into late June.

More immediately, however, it contains some obvious ramifications for any extended playoff run by Denver. The Nuggets’ exquisite starting five has once again proven dominant this season, with a monstrous +14.2 points per 100 possessions advantage this season entering Friday’s game … however, the Denver second stringers have again been found wanting. Any dent in that starting five could A) leave the Nuggets vulnerable to a slide in their playoff seeding and B) imperil their chances of another deep run this spring.

Denver’s non-starters have on-court ratings that range from barely positive (occasional starters Justin Holiday and Reggie Jackson) to jaw-droppingly negative (any backup center or rookie); individually, none have a PER above 13 except little-used DeAndre Jordan, and none have a BPM better than Peyton Watson’s -1.6. Before the Portland game, Malone pointed in particular to Denver’s 29th-ranked defense in second quarters, normally the most bench-heavy stanza after Nikola Jokić plays the entire first.

In the meantime, the Nuggets glided to a 127-112 victory on Friday while finding one potential solution for its bench woes in the form of second-year guard Collin Gillespie. He finished with a career-high 18 points in 24 minutes, and while the overmatched Blazers were not a playoff-caliber opponent, Nuggets staffers will tell you this moment was coming after he’d shown out in recent scrimmages and had been slaying in the G League – he was two rebounds shy of having four straight triple-doubles with Grand Rapids.

If so, it would be another home-grown developmental success story, and an important one given that Denver’s three rookies haven’t given them much and are likely “next year” guys at this point, while second-year pros Watson and Christian Braun have leveled off of late after strong starts to the season.

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Of course, the Nuggets retain the ultimate cheat code in the form of MVP favorite Jokić, who made life easy for the likes of Gillespie by repeatedly threading dimes past bewildered Portland defenders and rolling a triple-double before the end of the third quarter.

Even here, however, there could be a knock-on effect from Murray’s injuries. Last season a refreshed Jokić dominated the playoffs after sitting out five of Denver’s final seven games, with Denver secure in the knowledge that it had the top seed in the West wrapped up; compare that to the exhausted Jokić that Phoenix ran circles around in 2021.

An extended late-season rest for Jokić seems hugely unlikely with Denver emerging from the All-Star break fourth in the West; with Murray’s situation now front and center, the Nuggets may need Jokić to sprint through the tape just to get a favorable playoff seed this time.

As a result, all eyes are on Murray heading into the final two months of the season. The Nuggets’ success at managing this situation, could play a pivotal role in how the postseason turns out.

(Photo: Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images)

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John Hollinger

John Hollinger ’s two decades of NBA experience include seven seasons as the Memphis Grizzlies’ Vice President of Basketball Operations and media stints at ESPN.com and SI.com. A pioneer in basketball analytics, he invented several advanced metrics — most notably, the PER standard. He also authored four editions of “Pro Basketball Forecast.” In 2018 he was honored with the Lifetime Achievement Award at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. Follow John on Twitter @johnhollinger