FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on January 29, 2024

EUR/USD

At the end of the past week, during which the central banks of Japan, Canada, and the eurozone held meetings, the euro fell by only 44 pips. This indicates that investors are waiting for the outcomes of the Federal Reserve's decisions, and until then, we don't expect significant market movements. Although the price settled below the MACD line on the daily chart, there is a small chance that the price will settle below the support level of 1.9825 since the bearish gap from the opening of the session has not yet been closed, and settling below the MACD line ahead of the Fed meeting may turn out to be a false signal.

Overcoming the MACD line (1.0862) will certainly eliminate the current risk of a significant drop below 1.0825. However, this will not be a sign of a rise above 1.0905. Of course, we are waiting for the Fed's decision on monetary policy and the market's reaction to it. We expect the euro to fall below 1.0450 if the US stock market falls. Perhaps this will happen in February for political reasons.

On the 4-hour chart, an unclosed gap is clearly visible. The price adheres to the MACD line. The downtrend is restrained by a double convergence with the Marlin oscillator. We await the Fed meeting on Wednesday.