Finance & economics | A spotter’s guide

Will America manage a soft landing in 2024?

Policymakers rarely bring down inflation without a recession. This time they might

The sun rises behind the skyline of lower Manhattan and One World Trade Center in New York City.
Photograph: Getty Images

Could 2024 be a year unlike any in America’s post-war economic history? Never since 1945 has annual inflation, measured by the consumer-price index, fallen from above 5% to below 3% without a recession at the time of the fall or within the subsequent 18 months.

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