SPC AC 050537

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1237 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   SOUTH TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts
   of South Texas today. A few strong, to locally severe, storms are
   also possible across the Mid-South and upper Ohio Valley.

   ...South TX to Mid-South...

   Southern Plains short-wave trough will progress into east TX by
   sunrise then eject across the Arklatex during the afternoon as a
   weakening 500mb speed max translates into the lower MS Valley.
   Low-level warm advection is not expected to be particularly strong
   ahead of this feature, but a modest LLJ will shift across the
   Arklatex into the middle TN Valley during the overnight hours.

   Early this morning, an expansive MCS has evolved ahead of the short
   wave over the southern Plains. This complex will propagate toward
   the lower Sabine River Valley then possibly weaken early in the
   period. Some airmass recovery is expected ahead of the MCS with
   modest heating expected from northern LA into northern MS by mid
   day. Of more concern is the trailing southwestern flank of the MCS
   across south-central TX. Early-day convection will likely extend
   across the TX Coastal Plain with more isolated activity farther
   west. However, convective outflow will sag south and serve as the
   focus for potential renewed robust convection later in the day.
   Surface temperatures should only warm through the 80s across deep
   south TX as east-southeasterly low-level flow will limit low-level
   lapse rates. However, the boundary may prove adequate for isolated
   supercells to develop within a sufficiently sheared environment for
   sustained rotating updrafts. Large hail and damaging winds would be
   the primary risk with the south TX activity.

   Isolated-scattered convection is expected to evolve across the
   Mid-South. While forecast lapse rates are poor, a few strong/severe
   storms could evolve ahead of the aforementioned short wave. Locally
   damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail are possible.

   ...Ohio Valley...

   Strong short-wave trough will advance across the upper Great Lakes
   into western QC by the end of the period. Southern influence of this
   feature will glance the upper OH Valley such that a few strong
   storms could evolve during the day. Surface front will be the
   primary focus for convective development, but forecast soundings
   show only modest surface-6km bulk shear, and do not exhibit
   particularly steep lapse rates (6-6.5 C/km). Gusty winds and
   marginally severe hail are the primary risks.

   ..Darrow/Flournoy.. 05/05/2024

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