SPC AC 180454

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1154 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible on Friday
   over parts of the Southeast.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   An upper low will deepen as it moves across Ontario, with strong
   flow across the Great Lakes with a 90+ kt, elongated midlevel speed
   max. Well to the south, 30-40 kt midlevel winds will exist across
   northern portions of MS/AL/GA/Carolinas. This flow will be
   juxtaposed with a destabilizing air mass ahead of a cold front, with
   MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg developing where heating is strongest.

   Storms are likely to develop over the Appalachians, extending
   southwestward along the front into northern GA, AL, and into central
   MS. A subsidence inversion below 700 mb will be a concern for the
   lower elevations, but at least isolated marginally severe storms
   will be possible coincident with peak heating and with sufficient
   frontal convergence.

   Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates but relatively
   weak low-level winds. However, modest west/northwest flow aloft and
   sufficiently long hodographs may favor a few cells capable of
   marginal hail and locally damaging gusts.

   ..Jewell.. 04/18/2024

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