On the daily chart below for USDCHF , we can see that the pair has been falling nicely with the sellers always leaning on the trendline. The rejections have been perfect and with this latest bounce, we may expect the price to come back to test the trendline again.
The moving averages are well crossed to the downside and will act as resistance for the sellers. The economic data to watch will be the US Jobless Claims tomorrow and the US PMIs on Friday. We are likely to see another rejection of the trendline or a breakout depending on the outcome of the data.
USDCHF technical analysis
On the 4 hour chart below, we can see more closely how perfect the rejections have been from the trendline. At the moment, the short-term trend is bullish as we can also see from the moving averages being crossed to the upside.
This pullback is likely to test the trendline where we have the confluence with many other technical tools like the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, the daily red long period moving average and the previous swing low resistance. This spot will be the one to watch.
On the 1 hour chart below, we can see that the price is now bouncing from a short-term support created by the previous swing high. We are likely to see the price rising from here towards the trendline. But if this fails and the price breaks down, we may see the downtrend resuming already.
Anyway, the sellers are likely to pile in both on this support break and a retest of the trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price to break above the trendline supported by a fundamental catalyst to get the conviction to target higher highs.
