Ranking the NFL's Top Dark-Horses to Lead Major Offensive Categories in 2023

The NFL is a star-driven league. Fans flock to stadiums and gather at watering holes to see Patrick Mahomes make magic throwing the ball. To watch Derrick Henry plow through defenders on his way to the end zone. To see Tyreek Hill pluck a long pass from the air.

Because the NFL is also driven by offense. The rules have been slanting farther and farther toward it for years. The old saying may be that defense wins championships. But offense puts butts in seats at stadiums and sports bars.

There is no shortage of offensive stars in today's NFL, whether it's Mahomes, Henry, Hill, Travis Kelce, Jonathan Taylor or Davante Adams. For each and every one of those players, big things are expected in 2023.

But each and every year in the NFL also brings surprises. Sometimes it's a young player taking that final step from up-and-comer to star. Sometimes it's a veteran who comes from nowhere to post career-best numbers or recapture past glories.

Every year there are dark horses who challenge to lead the NFL in some statistical categories.

And in 2023, these players fit that bill.

When it comes to leading the NFL in passing yards, chalk usually rules the day. In 2022, Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs piled up 5,250 yards to lead the league. In 2021, it was Tom Brady of the Buccaneers, who amassed 5,316 yards.

Still, the door could be open for some new blood to take a run at pacing the NFL through the air. Seven of the past 10 passing titles were won by Brady, Drew Brees or Ben Roethlisberger. All three future Hall of Famers are now retired.

Names like Mahomes, Justin Herbert of the Chargers and Joe Burrow of the Bengals may dominate the conversation, but there are some other candidates who could be in contention as well.

3. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: We saw last year what a healthy Tagovailoa can do at the helm of Miami's loaded passing attack—in Week 2 he immolated the Baltimore Ravens for 469 passing yards and half a dozen passing scores. If the young southpaw can stay on the field, he's going to post big-time numbers.

2. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys can talk up Tony Pollard as the focal point of the Cowboys offense until they are blue in the face. But we don't know that Pollard can be the workhorse back Ezekiel Elliott was, and the addition of Brandin Cooks at wideout was a big get. As recently as two years ago, Prescott flirted with 4,500 passing yards.

1. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: Goff may well be the most underappreciated quarterback in the NFL—he gets very little run despite quietly ranking sixth in the league in passing yards last year and tied for fifth in the NFL in passing scores. A healthy Jameson Williams will make the Detroit offense that much more dangerous, and a Motown eruption could be coming in 2023.

Much like with passing yards, the list of players who have led the league in passing touchdowns over the past decade is a who's who at the position. Patrick Mahomes in 2022. Tom Brady in 2021. Aaron Rodgers in 2020. Lamar Jackson in 2019. Mahomes again the year before that.

Given how much this category has been dominated by the "blue bloods" under center, the likelihood of a dark horse leading the NFL in scoring tosses isn't great. But unlikely doesn't mean impossible, and if there is going to be a party-crasher, this trio presents some of the leading candidates.

3. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: Since leading the league with 36 touchdowns on the way to MVP honors in 2019, Jackson has topped 25 scores in a season only once and has just 33 touchdowns over the past two years combined. But we have seen Jackson lead the NFL before, and it appears he's not going to be lacking for motivation in the upcoming season.

2. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos: Wilson's first season in Denver last year was an unmitigated disaster. But the arrival of head coach Sean Payton in Denver is expected to give the offense a significant boost, and in Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, Wilson has a pair of quality receivers at his disposal. In 2017, Wilson's 34 touchdown passes were tops in the NFL.

1. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: Quarterbacks like Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert get most of the run, but it won't be a major surprise if Lawrence joins the ranks of elite young quarterbacks in 2023. Lawrence took a massive step forward in his first year with Doug Pederson, and his pass-catching corps is loaded with talent.

In some respects, every candidate to lead the NFL in rushing yards is a dark horse. The only thing we know for sure is that it probably won't be Josh Jacobs of the Las Vegas Raiders, who paced the league with 1,653 yards on the ground in 2022. That's because in the last 15 years, there has been all of one repeat rushing champion—Derrick Henry in 2019 and 2020.

With that said, there are a few backs who ranked outside the top 10 in rushing yards who are solid candidates to do what Jacobs did a year ago and become a surprise rushing champ.

3. Breece Hall, New York Jets: Hall was electrifying at times as a rookie, averaging 5.8 yards per carry and scoring a touchdown every 20 carries. Assuming Aaron Rodgers lands in New York, the Jets should be a markedly better offense, and if Hall is even close to 100 percent after recovering from a torn ACL, there should be room to roam in 2023.

2. J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens: Dobbins missed a big chunk of the 2022 season while recovering from the ACL tear that ended his 2021 season before it started. But by season's end he looked to be close to 100 percent, and the former Ohio State standout has averaged a ridiculous 5.9 yards per carry for his career.

1. Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks: Walker impressed as a rookie, topping 1,000 rushing yards, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and scoring nine touchdowns. Perhaps most importantly for our purposes, Walker appears to have a clear path to every-down duties for a Seahawks team that piled up 425 carries in 2022.

Last year, the number of people who accurately predicted before the season that Jamaal Williams of the Detroit Lions would lead the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns numbered exactly zero. Unpredictability is a huge part of this stat, because so many things have to go the right way.

It's not just a matter of talent, although that's certainly a factor. The scoring opportunities need to be there, and there can't be another back (or quarterback) who vultures too many of them.

None of these backs ranked inside the top 10 in rushing touchdowns a year ago, but the combination of factors is there that could lead to bigger and better things in 2023.

3. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers: Harris has topped 1,000 rushing yards in each of his first two seasons, but he did so while averaging under four yards a carry. Volume shouldn't be an issue with Harris—he's far and away the Steelers' top back—and the Pittsburgh offense should be improved in Kenny Pickett's second season.

2. Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots: Stevenson surpassed 1,000 rushing yards for the first time last year, and while New England could still add a back in the draft, right now the departure of Damien Harris would appear to indicate a sizable workload bump. Harris tied for second in the league in rushing scores with 15 in 2021, so we've seen the Patriots offense generate rushing scores.

1. David Montgomery, Detroit Lions: After leading the league in rushing scores in 2022, Williams joined the New Orleans Saints in free agency. He was replaced by Montgomery, who will ostensibly serve as Detroit's between-the-tackles and short-yardage option. If you believe the Lions will continue getting better in 2023, then Montgomery should be one of the bigger beneficiaries.

Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings is an incredible young talent at wide receiver. He has tallied more receiving yards (4,825) over the first three seasons of his career than any player at the position in NFL history.

With that said, he probably won't lead the league in receiving yards again in 2023. It has been over a decade since a player paced the NFL in that category in consecutive seasons—Calvin Johnson in 2011 and 2012.

There are some obvious candidates to usurp him in 2023, whether it's Ja'Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals or A.J. Brown of the Philadelphia Eagles. But there are some less obvious candidates who could sneak their way onto the leaderboard, as well.

3. Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns: Cooper was solid in his first season in Cleveland, catching 78 passes for 1,160 yards and nine scores. Cooper is far and away the No. 1 option in the Browns passing game, and if Deshaun Watson takes a step forward in his second season in Cleveland, then Cooper should be one of the biggest beneficiaries of that improvement.

2. Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars: Ridley missed a big chunk of the 2021 season, and his 2022 campaign was wiped out entirely by a gambling suspension. But in his last full season with the Falcons in 2020, Ridley tied for fifth in the league with 1,374 receiving yards. If he's close to the player in 2023 he was then, the Jaguars' passing game is going to be formidable.

1. Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints: Olave lost out to former Ohio State teammate Garrett Wilson in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting, but his first season was impressive in its own right—72 catches for 1,042 yards and four scores. Davante Adams was third in the league in receiving yards last year catching passes from Derek Carr. Olave has the talent to follow suit.

Here's the thing about receiving touchdowns—it can be a rather fluky stat. Davante Adams is the league's gold standard where touchdowns are concerned. He has led the league in two of the past three seasons while playing for two different teams.

But for every Adams or Cooper Kupp, there's a Kenny Golladay, who led the league with 11 scores in 2019. Or a James Jones, who came from nowhere to score a league-leading 14 touchdowns in 2012. Tight ends need to be considered as well—both Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs and George Kittle of the San Francisco 49ers ranked in the top five in passing scores in 2022.

With that said, these receivers all bear watching in 2023.

They could find the end zone rather a lot.

3. D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears: After five years in Carolina, Moore was traded to Chicago as part of the deal that landed the Panthers the first overall pick in the 2023 draft. Moore should lead all Bears wideouts in targets by a sizable margin, and it's not hard to imagine him becoming a favorite of Justin Fields in the red zone.

2. Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers: It took Watson a little while to get going, but by the end of his rookie season, he started to show flashes of being what the Pack so desperately needs—a go-to wide receiver. Of Watson's 41 catches in 2022, seven went for touchdowns. Expect a second-year spike in targets, receptions…and scores.

1. Garrett Wilson, New York Jets: Wilson topped 80 catches and surpassed 1,100 yards last year on the way to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. Now he will ostensibly be catching passes from Aaron Rodgers, who has produced three wideouts who led the league in scores—Adams in 2020, Jones in 2012 and Jordy Nelson in 2016.