SPC AC 250600

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
   EASTERN NE...NORTHEAST KS...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   An active severe weather day appears possible on Friday from parts
   of Nebraska and Iowa southward into parts of the southern Great
   Plains and Ozarks. A few tornadoes (possibly strong), large to very
   large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible.

   ...Synopsis...
   A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant
   surface low are forecast to move northeastward toward the upper
   Great Lakes from Friday into Friday night. A trailing Pacific
   front/dryline will move eastward through the day across the
   central/southern Plains, before retreating westward Friday night. A
   warm front will move northward in advance of the surface low across
   MO into parts of IA. Farther west, another deep mid/upper-level
   trough will move eastward across the Southwest into the southern
   Rockies. 

   ...Eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO...
   Supercells capable of all severe hazards appear possible from
   eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO, though coverage of the threat with
   southward extent somewhat uncertain at this time. 

   In the wake of morning convection, at least a narrow zone of
   moderate destabilization will be possible from parts of eastern NE
   into western IA, between the northward-moving warm front and
   approaching Pacific front/dryline. Scattered thunderstorm
   development is expected during the afternoon, with favorably veering
   low-level wind profiles and moderate deep-layer shear supporting
   supercell potential. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support a hail
   threat, with some potential for very large hail depending on the
   magnitude of destabilization. A few tornadoes will also be possible,
   both in the vicinity of the surface low, and with any longer-lived
   supercells along the dryline into southeast NE/southwest IA. 

   Farther south, a broader and potentially more unstable warm sector
   is expected to evolve across eastern KS into western MO. While
   large-scale ascent will be weaker with southward extent, at least
   isolated supercell development will be possible along the dryline by
   late afternoon. Any sustained supercells within this regime would
   pose a threat for tornadoes and very large hail. A strong tornado or
   will be possible if stronger pre-convective destabilization can
   materialize.  

   ...Eastern OK/northeast TX into AR/southern MO...
   Initially strong storm clusters are expected to move across eastern
   OK and potentially northeast TX into AR and MO through the morning,
   accompanied by at least an isolated hail and damaging gust threat.
   Some of this convection may persist or tend to regenerate along the
   eastern periphery of the primary instability axis. The eastern
   extent of any severe threat remains uncertain, but favorable
   low-level and deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized
   convection, with an isolated/marginal threat for all severe hazards.

   Farther west, moderate to strong instability and deep-layer shear
   will support a conditionally favorable environment along the dryline
   from eastern OK into northeast TX. In the wake of the departing
   shortwave trough, development along the dryline in this area will
   likely be very isolated, though any sustained cells would pose a
   threat for very large hail and possibly a tornado.

   ...Edwards Plateau into the Permian Basin vicinity of TX...
   As the dryline retreats late Friday night, convection could develop
   prior to the end of the period into parts of southwest TX, in
   advance of the approaching southwestern trough. Instability and
   shear would be sufficient for organized convection, though timing
   and coverage of any threat in this area remain too uncertain at this
   time for probabilities.

   ..Dean.. 04/25/2024

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