SPC AC 010600

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...THE EASTERN
   TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms with large hail up to 3 inches in diameter, wind
   damage, and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and
   evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. The
   greatest severe threat is expected from north-central Kansas
   southward across western Oklahoma, the eastern Texas Panhandle into
   northwest and west-central Texas.

   ...Southern and Central Plains...
   An upper-level trough will move across the Intermountain West and
   Desert Southwest today, as mid-level flow remains southwesterly
   across the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a low is
   forecast to deepen across southeast Colorado, with a warm front
   moving northward across central and north-central Kansas. A dryline
   will be located from southwest Kansas southward into west Texas. A
   moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F,
   will be located from the dryline eastward across much of the
   southern Plains. As surface heating takes place during the day,
   isolated convective initiation is expected across the moist airmass.
   More vigorous convective development will develop during the mid to
   late afternoon from the vicinity of the warm front in central
   Kansas, southward along the dryline into the southern Plains.

   Current model runs suggest that the storms will develop in the
   eastern Texas Panhandle and move into western Oklahoma. These storms
   are forecast to remain semi-discrete. RAP forecast soundings in
   western Oklahoma at 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE of 3000 to 4000 J/kg,
   with 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range, and 700-500 mb lapse
   rates near 8 C/km. This should support storms with some supercell
   structure, and a potential for large to very large hail up to 3
   inches in diameter. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be
   in the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range to the east of the dryline from
   southwest Kansas into northwest Texas, suggesting tornadoes will be
   possible. 

   Further north into central and north-central Kansas, model forecasts
   suggest that initiation will remain isolated due to a lack of
   large-scale ascent. By 00Z/Thursday, RAP forecast soundings near
   Salina have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative
   helicity in the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range. This would be favorable for
   a tornado threat, if cells can initiate along the warm front. The
   current thinking is that the models may be underdone with convection
   along the warm front. If convergence is strong enough, a discrete
   supercell could initiate during the late afternoon or early evening.
   The strengthening low-level jet would make low-level shear favorable
   for a tornado or two in central or north-central Kansas. Large to
   very large hail would also be possible with any cell that can
   develop on the warm front. These threats appear conditional.

   Further south across northwest and west-central Texas, a linear MCS
   is expected to develop. MLCAPE to the east of the dryline is
   forecast to be in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse
   rates near 8 C/km. This, combined with 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30
   knot range may support storm rotation early in the event. Cells that
   rotate can be expected to have large to very large hail. However, a
   rather quick transition to linear mode is forecast in the late
   afternoon. This linear MCS may be associated with severe wind gusts
   along the leading edge. The isolated wind-damage threat should
   affect areas in central Texas by mid to late evening.

   ..Broyles/Thornton.. 05/01/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z