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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 2, 2025
Updated: Thu Jan 2 09:18:02 UTC 2025
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Sun, Jan 05, 2025 - Mon, Jan 06, 2025 D7Wed, Jan 08, 2025 - Thu, Jan 09, 2025
D5Mon, Jan 06, 2025 - Tue, Jan 07, 2025 D8Thu, Jan 09, 2025 - Fri, Jan 10, 2025
D6Tue, Jan 07, 2025 - Wed, Jan 08, 2025 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion
   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 020916
   SPC AC 020916

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0316 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025

   Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a
   shortwave trough will extend from western/central KS into the TX
   Hill Country early D4/Sunday morning. This shortwave is then
   forecast to progress northeastward throughout the day, likely
   reaching the Mid MS Valley by D5/Monday morning. An associated
   surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, with an
   attendant cold front sweeping eastward across east TX and Lower MS
   Valley. A warm sector characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints will
   precede this front, which should be sufficient for modest buoyancy
   despite a relatively warm profile and poor lapse rates.
    
   Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front, with some
   potential for isolated discrete storms ahead of the front as well.
   Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend across the warm
   sector, resulting in deep-layer vertical shear strong enough to
   support organized storms (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear from 40 to 50 kt).
   General expectation is for the development of a fast-moving
   convective line capable of strong to severe gusts along the cold
   front, supported by modest buoyancy and deep-layer shear orthogonal
   to the front. Strengthening low-level flow (i.e. 50 to 60 kt at 850
   mb) could also support enough low-level shear for line-embedded
   circulations as well. 

   Some thunderstorms will remain possible across the Southeast on
   D5/Monday as the front continues eastward. However, limited
   low-level moisture ahead of the front should limit the severe
   thunderstorm threat. 

   From D6/Tuesday through D8/Thursday, cold and stable conditions are
   expected to preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS.

   ..Mosier.. 01/02/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: January 02, 2025
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