NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MAY 02: Elon Musk attends The 2022 Met Gala Celebrating "In America: An ... [+]
Tech billionaire Elon Musk may be inching closer to ending his feud with Twitter, and on Tuesday revived his $44 billion deal to take control of the social media platform. However, the same day he began another feud – this time with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, after Musk offered his solution to ending the war, even as Ukraine's forces were engaged in a successful counter-offensive.
The Tesla CEO took to Twitter to suggest that to reach a peace deal with Russia, which had invaded Ukraine in late February, the government in Kyiv should give up territory that Moscow had seized in 2014. Musk further argued that Ukraine should adopt a neutral status, drop any bid to join NATO, and also called for the United Nations to oversee a new referendum in the territories that Russia has looked to annex.
In a post on Twitter, Musk used the argument that Crimea had been historically part of Russia until it was given to Ukraine under the Soviet Union in the 1950s. He further suggested a drawn-out war could not end with a Ukrainian victory. Musk then launched a Twitter poll that asked users whether "the will of the people" should decide if the regions should remain part of Ukraine or become Russian territories.
Those comments were not received well by Zelensky, who accused them of being pro-Kremlin. The Ukrainian leader has pledged to recover all territories taken by Russia, including Crimea. He posted his own Twitter poll that asked the question, "Which Elon Musk do you like more?" The options were "One who supports Ukraine," or "One who supports Russia."
Musk quickly countered, "I still very much support Ukraine, but am convinced that massive escalation of the war will cause great harm to Ukraine and possibly the world."
In fact, the tech entrepreneur has provided considerable aid to Ukraine.
Musk's SpaceX company shared its Starlink satellite system that helps deliver Internet access to areas that lack coverage. At the time, Zelensky personally thanked Musk for the equipment that he said would help maintain communications in cities under attack. Yet, in April, Musk also announced that as a "free speech absolutist" his Starlink system would not block Russian state media outlets that spread propaganda and misinformation on the war in Ukraine.
Russia Weighed In
The Kremlin also joined the exchange on social media on Tuesday.
"It's very positive that such a person as Elon Musk is trying to look for a peaceful settlement," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said via a tweet. "As for the referendums, people have voiced their opinion and there could be nothing else."
The United States and most Western governments have refused to recognize the results of the recent referendums, arguing that residents were forced to vote – oftentimes at gunpoint.
Realpolitik
In many ways, Musk's comments are in line with the concept of "realpolitik," where one engages in diplomatic or political policies based primarily on considerations of given circumstances and factors, rather than strictly binding itself to explicit ideological notions or moral and ethical premises.
"I don't think there is anything wrong with what Musk said, but he broke a golden rule of the D.C. national security establishment: (admitting) that Ukraine may very well have to give up something in order to gain peace," explained Harry J. Kazianis, senior editor for 19FortyFive and president of the Rogue States Project.
"Surely that is terrible if that does come to pass, but Musk in some respects is laying the groundwork for what will be an imperfect peace when it comes to ending the Ukraine conflict," Kazianis said via an email. "Wars in real life don't end in happy fairytales where all sides come home from the battles alive and peace is achieved where everyone wins."
Instead, the fighting could stop, yet there may not be a permanent peace in the region.
"What I think Ukraine and many others are reacting to is the reality that at best the conflict will be the biggest frozen one ever – think the Korean War ending but worse – or a peace deal that neither side loves and could see a war start again in a few years," Kazianis continued. "Musk tapped into that raw nerve, and while he might get attacked for it, at least he started a debate on how the war ends. And that is certainly better than talking about nuclear war all of the time."
Social Media Is The Wrong Forum
Many have argued that social media, especially Twitter, was the wrong forum for Musk to even bring up his recommendations on how the war could be resolved.
"You can see that Zelensky saw this as a critical information space event that he, personally, as president, had to respond to. He's very media savvy," said Dr. Matthew Schmidt, associate professor of national security and political science at the University of New Haven.
"He knows something like Musk's tweet could gain traction and shift the narrative toward forcing Ukraine to negotiate with a man set on their country's destruction," added Schmidt.
Musk has a huge following, but he remains a businessman and tech entrepreneur – not an expert in geopolitics, or even international negotiations. The fact that he is offering advice could actually hurt the peace process.
"This is the risk of social media – it can give anyone with a following, or who has the chance of getting one by going viral, the power to shape the way a global audience understands an event," suggested Schmidt. "It gives them the chance to make policy on things they don't have a legitimate say over. Musk is not an elected official of Ukraine. He has no right to shape their future."
