SPC AC 190555

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1255 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will
   be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast
   Texas.

   ...South-central and Southeast Texas...
   A shortwave trough will move toward the southern Plains on Saturday,
   as zonal flow remains in place across much of the Gulf Coast region.
   At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located
   across south-central and southeast Texas. South of this boundary, a
   moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s F.
   Surface heating will result in destabilization across this airmass
   during the day. As instability peaks during the afternoon, and as
   low-level convergence increases along and near the front, scattered
   thunderstorm development is expected. ECMWF forecast soundings in
   south-central Texas during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE
   will peak near 1200 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be around 40
   knots. This would be favorable for an isolated severe threat. The
   stronger storms could be associated with isolated damaging wind
   gusts and hail. However, limited large-scale ascent and poor lapse
   rates will likely keep any severe threat marginal.

   ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024

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