Powell Q&A: My main message has not changed at all since Jackson Hole

• So far there's only modest evidence that the jobs market is cooling off
• Our focus is getting inflation back down and we think we'll need softening in the labor market
• We want to see clear evidence inflation is moving back down to 2%
• Before cutting rates we want to be very confident inflatino is moving back down to 2%
• It's likely to take some time to see the full effects of changing financial conditions on inflation
• There's still a ways to go on rates
• We've just moved to the 'very lowest level' of restrictive
• We see the current situation as outside of historical norms
• We do see some evidence of supply shocks abating, inflation in commodities coming down
• The chances of a soft landing are likely to diminish if rates need to be higher
• Despite recession risks, we're determined to get inflation under control because the alternative is much worse
• We believe rate needs to put meaningfully downward pressure on inflation but we know there are long and variable lags
• Median sees 125 bps in hikes for year end but significant group sees 100 bps. We didn't make that decision today
• Core inflation is not where we need it to be
• We can't fail to get inflation back down to 2%
• There are still significant savings on people's balance sheets
• We haven't given up on the idea that we can have a relatively modest increase in unemployment while bringing inflation down
• "We have got to get inflation behind us. I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn't"
• Shelter inflation may take some time to come down. You have to assume it will stay pretty high for awhile

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I think the real tell is that the peak dots of any Fed forecaster are at 4.75-5.00%. That is essentially a cap on Fed hikes.