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    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 28, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 28 05:32:45 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240328 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240328 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 280532

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1232 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

   ...Discussion...

   Offshore flow will dominate the Gulf/Atlantic Coasts during the day1
   period as the primary synoptic front advances east ahead of a
   pronounced upper trough. Early in the period, surface wind shift
   will extend from the NC Outer Banks region, southwest across the
   central FL Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
   along this boundary, aided in part by large-scale forcing ahead of
   the upper trough. While strong deep-layer flow/shear will be noted,
   poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy do not appear conducive for
   particularly robust updrafts along the advancing wind shift.

   Upstream across the western US, very cold midlevel temperatures will
   overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies/northern Great
   Basin. 500mb jet is forecast to sag south across CA/NV/UT into the
   Four Corners region during the latter half of the period. As a
   result, very steep lapse rates will be generated north of the jet,
   such that weak buoyancy is expected to support scattered convection.
   Given the cold profiles, some risk for thunderstorms will be noted,
   as low-topped convection could attain heights necessary for
   lightning discharge.

   ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/28/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: March 28, 2024
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