SPC AC 281655
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
...Synopsis...
A deep upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to
continue moving eastward on Friday. Upstream, an upper-level trough
will continue to amplify across the West, as a deep-layer cyclone
moves southeastward just offshore of the central CA coast. Between
the eastern and western troughs, multiple low-amplitude shortwaves
will move northeastward across parts of the central/northern Plains
and upper Midwest. The greatest relative thunderstorm potential is
currently expected over parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley
within a warm-advection regime, and near the central CA coast in
association with the offshore cyclone.
...Parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley...
Modest low-level moisture return (surface dewpoints in the low 50s
F) is expected across parts of MO/IA into western/northern IL, as a
weak surface low moves from the east-central Great Plains toward
southern WI. Modest MLCAPE (increasing to near/above 500 J/kg) may
develop in the warm sector of the surface low, though capping is
currently expected to limit the potential for surface-based storm
development. Elevated thunderstorm development will become
increasingly possible with time Friday evening, within a low-level
warm-advection regime. While increasing effective shear will be
sufficient for some storm organization, rather weak elevated
buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) is currently expected to
limit severe-hail potential. If elevated buoyancy trends larger than
currently forecast, and/or if surface-based storm development
becomes more of a concern, then low-end severe probabilities may
eventually be needed.
..Dean.. 03/28/2024
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