SPC AC 070050

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0750 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024

   Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A regional outbreak of severe weather with multiple intense (EF3+),
   long-tracked tornadoes, as well as very large hail and severe
   thunderstorm gusts, is expected over parts of the south-central
   Plains this evening into the overnight hours.

   ...South-Central Plains...

   Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined trough advancing across
   the central High Plains early this evening. Southern influence of
   this feature is now beginning to affect northwestern TX/southwestern
   OK as evident by agitated cu field and towers deepening along the
   TX/OK border. Latest surface observations depict backing flow into
   this region, while dew points in the upper 60s to near 70F will soon
   surge into this deepening cu field. 00z sounding from OUN is very
   impressive with 3700 J/kg MLCAPE, 400 m2/s2 0-3km SRH, and steep
   lapse rates. Additionally, weak cap has all but disappeared, as
   evident by deepening cu field along the I-35 corridor just south of
   the OKC metro. Low-level shear will continue to increase this
   evening and supercells are expected to grow upscale across
   southwestern OK over the next few hours. This activity will
   spread/develop east/northeast along the I-44 corridor this evening.
   Threat for strong, long-track tornadoes will increase along this
   corridor into the mid evening hours.

   ..Darrow.. 05/07/2024

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