SPC AC 261253

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0753 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

   Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST
   MO/SOUTHWEST IA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated
   very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind
   damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from
   northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri and
   southwest Iowa.  Occasional severe storms are expected farther south
   into Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

   ...Mid MO Valley to TX through tonight...
   A complex surface pattern is evident this morning with a cyclone in
   northern KS, a trailing dryline/Pacific front into western OK, and
   the east edge of the warm sector demarcated by a warm front from
   eastern OK into eastern KS.  An ongoing QLCS with occasional wind
   damage and tornado reports is moving across eastern OK near the warm
   front, with an area of rain-cooled/overturned in OK in the wake of
   these storms.  Farther north, an undisturbed portion of the warm
   sector extends across central KS.

   The eastern OK convection will likely persist through the day toward
   western AR, with additional expansion of rain/thunderstorms farther
   northeast into southwest/central MO.  The OK/AR portion of this
   convection will be the most likely to maintain access to the surface
   warm sector through the day, where a mix of bowing segments or
   embedded supercells will be possible with all hazards.  

   The clouds/rain will slow the northeastward progress of the warm
   sector, and northward advection of the overturned airmass in OK will
   potentially impact the breadth and quality of the unstable warm
   sector this afternoon.  Assuming sufficient recovery during the day,
   there will be a window of opportunity for tornadic supercells along
   the dryline this afternoon/evening starting in northeast
   KS/southeast NE and spreading into northwest MO/southwest IA. 
   MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg, boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid
   60s, and sufficiently long hodographs with low-level hodograph
   curvature (effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt, and effective
   SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) suggest the potential for a couple of strong
   tornadoes with any persistent, semi-discrete supercells.  Isolated
   very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) will also be
   possible, while the potential for a few damaging gusts will
   accompany any upscale growth into line segments this evening.

   Additional thunderstorm development will be possible today farther
   southwest into TX, in association with weak height falls on the
   southern fringe of the ejecting midlevel trough.  The 12z FWD
   sounding showed only a weak cap, so the SLGT has been expanded some
   to the southwest to account for large hail/wind damage potential
   today.  Storms will likely weaken by this evening as weak height
   rises commence and the remnant dryline begins to retreat to the
   west.

   ..Thompson/Guyer.. 04/26/2024

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