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< Day 2 Outlook   Day 4 - 8 Outlook >
Mar 29, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 29 07:26:49 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240329 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20240329 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 290726

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

   Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A marginal severe threat with a potential for hail, is expected
   Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into
   the mid to upper Misssissippi and Ohio Valleys.

   ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid To Upper Mississippi and Ohio
   Valleys...
   At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place on
   Sunday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Subtle shortwave
   troughs could move eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the
   Ohio Valley. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast in
   the lower Missouri Valley, with a warm front extending eastward into
   the Ohio Valley. This front should be a focus for potentially strong
   thunderstorm development during the day and into the overnight
   period. Forecast soundings, along the east-to-west corridor from
   northern Missouri to central Indiana, have a sharp temperature
   inversion in place. Above the inversion, MUCAPE could reach the 1000
   to 1500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This
   environment, along with effective shear in the 45 to 55 knot range,
   would support an isolated large hail threat with the stronger
   elevated storms. At this time, the exact area with the greatest hail
   threat is uncertain. Model guidance places the greatest potential
   somewhere from northern Missouri/southeast Iowa to central
   Indiana/southwest Ohio. For this outlook, will place a Marginal Risk
   along this corridor.

   Further west into the central Plains, an unstable airmass is
   forecast to develop by evening across much of Kansas and
   southeastern Nebraska due to low-level moisture advection. In spite
   of this, the airmass is expected to remain strongly capped due to a
   warm nose near 700 mb. Elevated thunderstorm development will be
   possible Sunday night as far west as parts of far southeast Nebraska
   and far northeast Kansas. However, further southwest the airmass is
   expected to be too capped for convective initiation.

   ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: March 29, 2024
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