SPC AC 180645

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0145 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are not currently forecast on Saturday. A few strong
   storms cannot be ruled out over parts of the Southeast, and over
   parts of Texas.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   On Saturday, a large upper trough will move quickly east across the
   Great Lakes and Northeast, while an upper low deepens over Hudson
   Bay. A relatively wide zone of moderate midlevel westerlies will
   remain south of these entities, from the central Plains to the East
   Coast. Elsewhere, a southern-stream wave will move into the southern
   Plains, providing cooling aloft.

   At the surface,  a weak area of low pressure may linger over SC,
   with a front extending westward into southern TX during the day.
   This front will slowly shift south, reaching the western Gulf of
   Mexico by Sunday morning.  A moist air mass will remain ahead of the
   front, resulting in elevated instability over the southern Plains,
   and areas of surface-based instability over the Southeast.

   The strongest pocket of instability may exist from GA into SC
   coincident with steeper low-level lapse rates. Given relatively week
   shear, severe storms are not currently forecast. However, a few
   strong storms will be possible assuming antecedent convection has
   not pushed the effective boundary offshore prior to peak heating.

   Over TX and OK, models indicate substantial elevated CAPE will
   exist, but also widespread clouds, rain and thunderstorms throughout
   the period. A few storms could potentially support marginal hail,
   however, predictability is a bit low given expected widespread
   precipitation.

   ..Jewell.. 04/18/2024

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