ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 040900
   SPC AC 040900

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024

   Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   An active period of organized severe thunderstorms should persist
   into at least the middle of next week across parts of the southern
   Plains into the mid MS Valley, Mid-South, and Midwest/OH Valley. The
   15% severe areas for both Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday have
   been expanded based on latest model trends.

   ...Day 4/Tuesday...
   The primary upper low over the northern Plains is forecast to
   gradually occlude on Tuesday. But, a strong mid-level jet streak
   should overspread parts of the mid MS Valley and Midwest through the
   day. A secondary surface low should develop northeastward across
   these regions, with a warm front also lifting northward towards
   southern WI and southern Lower MI. Thunderstorms related to
   low-level warm advection and activity that has spread eastward from
   the southern/central Plains may be ongoing Tuesday morning. It
   remains unclear if these thunderstorms will strengthen once again as
   they develop eastward in tandem with a destabilizing warm sector.
   Additional robust convection will likely develop Tuesday afternoon
   farther south along the dryline over the Ozarks and Mid-South. A
   favorable parameter space for supercells and all severe hazards
   remains evident, with the threat for severe thunderstorms continuing
   Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the OH Valley.

   ...Day 5/Wednesday...
   Although some differences in model guidance regarding the upper-air
   pattern across the central/eastern CONUS begin to emerge by
   Wednesday, there is still good agreement that a belt of strong
   mid-level flow will remain in place from the southern/central Plains
   northeastward to the OH Valley and Great Lakes. It appears that
   another embedded shortwave trough will advance eastward from the
   southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley by Wednesday evening.
   A very moist and moderately to strongly unstable airmass should
   reside to the east of a cold front/dryline across these regions,
   potentially extending as far north into much of the Midwest/OH
   Valley. Strong deep-layer shear will favor organized convection,
   including supercells and bowing line segments posing a threat for
   all severe hazards. Depending on the influence of prior convection,
   the very favorable parameter space forecast for Wednesday across
   parts of the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley and OH Valley
   may necessitate greater severe probabilities in a later outlook.

   ...Day 6/Thursday...
   Multiple days of robust and potentially widespread convection
   complicates the severe potential for Thursday. Still, some severe
   risk remains evident along/south of what will probably be a
   convectively reinforced front/boundary extending across parts of the
   southern Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. It is possible
   that one or more 15% severe areas for Thursday will be needed for
   these regions given favorable forecast instability/shear. But, this
   is still dependent on better agreement in model guidance regarding
   the extent/placement of moderate to strong instability, and overall
   convective coverage Thursday afternoon/evening.

   ...Day 7/Friday and Day 8/Saturday...
   The spatial extent of the warm sector should tend to become more
   confined late next week and into the weekend. There is a fair amount
   of spread in model guidance regarding the strength and placement of
   an upper trough/low over the eastern CONUS in this time frame.
   Still, a severe risk may continue Friday along/south of a front that
   should be in place over parts of the Southeast. Any lingering severe
   threat into Saturday may be even farther south and confined to
   mainly parts of FL.

   ..Gleason.. 05/04/2024

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