(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 080844
SPC AC 080844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential on Day 4/Saturday should remain rather limited
across the CONUS, as a cold front continues southward over the FL
Peninsula. Still, post-frontal low-level easterly flow should occur
across parts of northern Mexico into south TX. With steep mid-level
lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear present over this region,
any thunderstorm that can form and move off the higher terrain of
northern Mexico could some hail and gusty winds. Even so, the
overall severe threat currently appears too limited/isolated to add
a 15% severe area across south TX.
From Day 5/Sunday into early next week, a weak upper trough/low
should progress slowly eastward from the Southwest across the
southern/central Plains, and eventually the MS Valley. Weak
low-level mass response ahead of this feature should encourage a
northward return of rich low-level moisture over parts of the
southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast. Some severe risk may
exist each day across these regions. But, differences in evolution
of the upper trough, along with uncertainty in how far inland the
rich/moist low-level airmass will be able to advance, suggest
predictability remains too low to include any severe areas.
..Gleason.. 05/08/2024
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