Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4
Fri, Jan 24, 2025 - Sat, Jan 25, 2025
D7
Mon, Jan 27, 2025 - Tue, Jan 28, 2025
D5
Sat, Jan 25, 2025 - Sun, Jan 26, 2025
D8
Tue, Jan 28, 2025 - Wed, Jan 29, 2025
D6
Sun, Jan 26, 2025 - Mon, Jan 27, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 210902
SPC AC 210902
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An amplified and progressive upper trough will move quickly from the
MS Valley to the East Coast on Friday/D4, with zonal flow developing
behind this system. High pressure will follow, maintaining dry
offshore winds across the Southeast.
Models remain in relatively good agreement with the large-scale
pattern through the weekend, depicting a positive-tilt upper trough
over the southwestern states. A broad fetch of west/southwest flow
aloft is forecast to extend across the southern Plains and into much
of the East, with the deep upper low over eastern Canada. Sufficient
instability is forecast to develop across parts of southern and
eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Saturday/D5 Night into
Sunday/D6. Given the antecedent cool air at the surface, substantial
clouds and precipitation appear likely, reducing overall
destabilization and severe potential.
Models diverge around Monday/D7, with uncertainly regarding whether
another wave will develop into the northern Plains and Great Lakes
as disturbances rotate around the large-scale low. To the west, the
trough/low over the Southwest may eventually eject east, but timing
for this is uncertain as well with low predictability at this time
frame. In any case, severe potential is forecast to be low through
the period.
..Jewell.. 01/21/2025
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