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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 21, 2025
Updated: Tue Jan 21 09:05:03 UTC 2025
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Fri, Jan 24, 2025 - Sat, Jan 25, 2025 D7Mon, Jan 27, 2025 - Tue, Jan 28, 2025
D5Sat, Jan 25, 2025 - Sun, Jan 26, 2025 D8Tue, Jan 28, 2025 - Wed, Jan 29, 2025
D6Sun, Jan 26, 2025 - Mon, Jan 27, 2025 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion
   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 210902
   SPC AC 210902

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0302 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

   Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   An amplified and progressive upper trough will move quickly from the
   MS Valley to the East Coast on Friday/D4, with zonal flow developing
   behind this system. High pressure will follow, maintaining dry
   offshore winds across the Southeast.

   Models remain in relatively good agreement with the large-scale
   pattern through the weekend, depicting a positive-tilt upper trough
   over the southwestern states. A broad fetch of west/southwest flow
   aloft is forecast to extend across the southern Plains and into much
   of the East, with the deep upper low over eastern Canada. Sufficient
   instability is forecast to develop across parts of southern and
   eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Saturday/D5 Night into
   Sunday/D6. Given the antecedent cool air at the surface, substantial
   clouds and precipitation appear likely, reducing overall
   destabilization and severe potential. 

   Models diverge around Monday/D7, with uncertainly regarding whether
   another wave will develop into the northern Plains and Great Lakes
   as disturbances rotate around the large-scale low. To the west, the
   trough/low over the Southwest may eventually eject east, but timing
   for this is uncertain as well with low predictability at this time
   frame. In any case, severe potential is forecast to be low through
   the period.

   ..Jewell.. 01/21/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: January 21, 2025
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