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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 28, 2024
Updated: Thu Mar 28 09:02:02 UTC 2024
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Sun, Mar 31, 2024 - Mon, Apr 01, 2024 D7Wed, Apr 03, 2024 - Thu, Apr 04, 2024
D5Mon, Apr 01, 2024 - Tue, Apr 02, 2024 D8Thu, Apr 04, 2024 - Fri, Apr 05, 2024
D6Tue, Apr 02, 2024 - Wed, Apr 03, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 280900
   SPC AC 280900

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

   Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Day 4/Sunday: Mid Mississippi Valley into the Central/Southern
   Plains...
   The upper trough/low over the western states should slowly advance
   eastward towards the Southwest and southern/central High Plains on
   Sunday. Upper ridging is forecast to remain over the central/
   southern Plains through Sunday night, which in tandem with a
   low-level temperature inversion should tend to suppress most
   convection. One possible exception may be along a sharpening warm
   front across MO/IL, where some guidance suggests elevated convection
   may form either Sunday morning, and/or Sunday night with strong
   low-level warm advection/lift occurring. Steepening mid-level lapse
   rates are forecast to overspread the mid MS Valley from the
   southwest through the period. These lapse rates, along with
   increasing moisture/instability in the presence of strong deep-layer
   shear, may support a risk for isolated supercells with associated
   threat for large hail. Regardless, confidence remains too low in
   this mainly elevated convection occurring, given upper ridging
   persisting, to add a 15% severe area for Sunday along/near the warm
   front in MO/IL at this time.

   ...Day 5/Monday: Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi
   and Ohio Valleys...
   Even though some differences remain in medium-range guidance
   regarding the ejection of an upper trough over the central CONUS on
   Monday, confidence has increased in the general location of relevant
   surface features, including the primary low, position of a
   southward-extending dryline, and northward extent of the warm front
   into the OH Valley. Even though the overall upper trough orientation
   may remain somewhat positively tilted, most deterministic guidance
   shows that a mid-level speed max and associated shortwave trough
   will eject northeastward over the southern/central Plains through
   Monday evening. Low-level mass response should encourage the
   eastward development of a surface low to the OK/KS vicinity in a
   similar time frame. Favorable low-level trajectories emanating from
   the Gulf will act to increase low-level moisture in tandem with
   steepening mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating across a broad
   warm sector extending from the southern/central Plains into the
   lower/mid MS Valley and OH Valley.

   A favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment for organized
   severe convection will exist across much of these regions, with
   supercells capable of producing large hail and tornadoes possible
   initially. With time Monday evening/night, some upscale growth seems
   probable across the mid MS and OH Valleys, as mid-level flow should
   become increasingly parallel to a surface cold front. Therefore, a
   15% severe area has been introduced for Monday where confidence is
   greatest that robust convection will develop in a parameter space
   characterized by weak/moderate instability and strong deep-layer
   shear. A nocturnal minimum in severe convective potential may be
   realized Monday night into early Tuesday morning across parts of the
   lower MS Valley into Mid-South, given the positively tilted nature
   of the upper trough.

   ...Day 6/Tuesday: Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the Appalachians...
   Some severe threat should continue Tuesday over parts of the OH/TN
   Valleys into the Appalachians as the upper trough continues
   eastward. Even though there is still some uncertainty with the exact
   placement of the primary surface low and evolution of the upper
   trough, enough confidence exists in a fairly narrow corridor across
   these regions to add a 15% severe area for Tuesday. Rich low-level
   moisture should be in place ahead of an eastward-moving cold front.
   Redevelopment and/or re-intensification of convection seems probable
   by Tuesday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear and weak instability
   should be sufficient for organized severe convection posing some
   threat for damaging winds, and perhaps tornadoes given the forecast
   strength of a low-level jet focused over parts of the OH/TN Valleys.
   The northward extent of the severe risk across OH and vicinity
   remains uncertain, as the placement of the warm front varies in
   model guidance. Similarly, convection should eventually encounter a
   less unstable airmass across the Appalachians. But, an isolated
   severe risk may continue Tuesday evening into early Wednesday
   morning across the southern/central Appalachians into portions of
   the Southeast.

   ...Day 7/Wednesday and Day 8/Thursday...
   Predictability remains too low to include a 15% severe delineation
   for Wednesday across the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast along/ahead of a
   cold front. By this extended time frame, there are significant
   differences in model guidance regarding the evolution of the upper
   trough, including its possible interaction/merging with a
   northern-stream trough, and placement of relevant surface features.
   Still, at least an isolated severe risk may persist Wednesday
   along/ahead of the eastward-sweeping cold front. Once this front
   clears the East Coast, severe potential appears minimal across the
   CONUS next Thursday.

   ..Gleason.. 03/28/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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