SPC AC 080730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across
   parts of the Southeast.

   ...Southeast...
   An upper trough should dig southeastward across the TN Valley and
   Southeast on Friday. A belt of strong (50-65 kt) westerly mid-level
   flow should be present over much of the Southeast through the
   period. A cold front is forecast to continue moving south-
   southeastward across the Deep South and Carolinas through the day.
   There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the placement and
   intensity of a possible MCS/small bowing cluster at the start of the
   period Friday morning across parts of AL/GA. This cluster would
   impact the potential for moderate instability to develop ahead of
   the front through the day, as indicated by the 00 NAM. Other
   guidance shows less instability and a farther southward placement of
   convective redevelopment Friday afternoon, mainly over parts of
   north FL/southern GA.

   Given these substantial uncertainties, have opted to include a
   fairly broad Marginal Risk from southern MS/AL into north FL and
   much of GA/SC. This should account for thunderstorms that may form
   along the front in the afternoon and subsequently spread
   south-southeastward, and for any lingering threat with the possible
   morning cluster. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat with
   primarily linear convection forecast. But, some hail could also
   occur with any semi-discrete thunderstorms given strong-deep-layer
   shear expected. Any severe threat should diminish through Friday
   evening with southward extent into north FL, and as convection moves
   offshore the GA/SC Coast.

   ..Gleason.. 05/08/2024

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