Click-to-scroll-up Image
Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 27, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Mar 27 12:44:49 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240327 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240327 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 271244

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0744 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

   Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   THE NEAR-COASTAL SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
   NORTH TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are possible over parts of
   the near-coastal Southeast, as well as portions of central and north
   Texas.

   ...Synopsis...
   A vast area of the CONUS begins the period with cyclonic mid/upper-
   level flow, thanks to nearly phased northern- and southern-stream
   synoptic troughs.  The southern one is apparent in moisture-channel
   imagery from eastern NM to the Big Bend region of west TX, then over
   Coahuila, and should move eastward to AR, east TX and the
   northwestern Gulf by 00Z.  The northern one is anchored by a 500-mb
   cyclone centered initially over northwestern MN, forecast to pivot
   to near Thunder Bay, ON, by 00Z, then northeastward to between Lake
   Superior and James Bay around 12Z. By then, phased troughing will
   extend from there across Lake Michigan and the lower Ohio Valley to
   the southern-stream perturbation over parts of AL, southeastern LA
   and the north-central/west-central Gulf.

   At the surface, 11Z analysis depicted an occluded low over northern
   ON, with an occluded/cold front to near BUF, PIT, and BKW, to a
   triple-point low near AGS.  A cold front extended from there
   southwestward across the AAF area to the central/southwestern Gulf. 
   A warm front was drawn from the southern low east-southeastward
   between SAV-CHS.  The warm front should shift northeastward across
   coastal SC and the Low Country today.  Another frontal-wave low may
   form tonight over SC then move offshore.  The cold front should move
   slowly southeastward, reaching near an XMR-EYW line by 12Z tomorrow.

   ...Southeast CONUS...
   An ongoing belt of precip, with embedded/scattered thunderstorms,
   should continue to shift slowly eastward across the area, in step
   with (and near the position of) the front.  The most intense cells
   will be capable of damaging gusts -- especially on and ahead of the
   boundary -- as well as severe hail.  That includes a semi-organized,
   bowing storm cluster moving inland from the FL coastal bend, for
   another hour or so until it encounters substantially more stable air
   sampled by the 12Z TBW and JAX RAOBs.

   The near-surface layer -- initially stable over land from prior
   nocturnal cooling -- should undergo both gradual diabatic heating
   through anvil-cloud cover, and warm/moist advection through the
   afternoon.  This will erode the morning stable layer and support
   peak preconvective/prefrontal MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/Kg over parts of
   northern FL, and 1000-1500 J/kg over eastern GA and parts of SC. 
   Flow aloft will remain strongly parallel to the front and the
   convective plume, continuing a messy convective character with
   embedded thunderstorms.  Forecast hodographs support a blend of
   sporadic left- and right-moving supercells, and mainly organized
   multicells, with stronger shear and buoyancy but somewhat weaker
   lift over southern parts of the outlook area.  As the threat appears
   sporadic and spatially isolated -- not very well-focused in time or
   within the broader precip swath -- probabilities are held at
   marginal unconditional thresholds for now.

   ...Central/north TX...
   Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible for a few hours this
   afternoon into early evening, moving eastward to southeastward, with
   isolated severe hail and strong to marginally severe gusts possible.

   An area of surface low pressure over eastern NM -- initially tied to
   lee troughing that extends well poleward into AB -- will split off
   and move southeastward over northwest/north-central TX this
   afternoon in response to the perturbation aloft, with a trough/
   convergence zone to the south or south-southeast across central TX. 
   These features should provide enough lift for convection, amidst
   minimal capping.  As the mid/upper trough shifts toward and over the
   area, very cold air aloft (500-mb temperatures at or below -25 deg
   C) will contribute to steep midlevel lapse rates exceeding 8 deg
   C/km.  Despite being seemingly cool at the surface and well behind
   the cold front, diabatic heating and residual moisture (dewpoints
   generally mid 30s to mid 40s F) should erode MLCINH by mid/late
   afternoon, with 300-700 J/kg MLCAPE possible.  Though low-level flow
   will be weak, enough deep shear should exist to support multicells
   and at least transient supercell structures, atop a well-mixed
   subcloud layer.  The threat should wane by about 03Z as the
   near-surface layer stabilizes and coverage/intensity of what had
   been mostly diurnally driven convection diminishes.

   ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/27/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 27, 2024
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities