(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 190849
SPC AC 190849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5...
Surface high pressure is forecast to move across the Southeast on
Monday and Tuesday. As a result, a dry and cool airmass is expected
to limit severe potential across the continental U.S.
...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8...
Low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the Southern
Plains and Ark-La-Tex from Wednesday into Wednesday night, as a
low-level jet develops across the Great Plains. Within the warm
advection regime, isolated strong thunderstorm development could
take place. A hail threat would be possible in parts of the southern
and central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens and instability
increases Wednesday night.
On Thursday and Friday, the medium-range models develop a
large-scale upper-level trough over the southwestern U.S. Some
solutions eject a lead shortwave across the central U.S. on Thursday
and Thursday night. Ahead of this feature, significant moisture
return is forecast, and it appears that moderate instability will be
in place across much of the southern and central Plains. Strong to
severe thunderstorms could develop to the east of a dryline across
parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.
Some model solutions suggest that a second shortwave trough will
move across the southern Plains on Friday. This would continue a
potential for severe storms Friday into Friday night from the
southern Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. In spite of a
potential for severe storms late in the Day 4 to 8 period,
predictability remains low. This is especially true on Friday due a
relatively large spread among the model solutions.
..Broyles.. 04/19/2024
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