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Mar 18, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 18 07:28:58 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240318 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20240318 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 180728

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
   ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE TEXAS
   HILL COUNTRY VICINITY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple clusters of thunderstorm activity may develop across the
   southern Great Plains late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
    Some of these storms could be accompanied by a risk for severe hail
   and gusty winds.

   ...Synopsis...
   As a significant short wave impulse, emerging from the base of
   larger-scale mid-level troughing centered near the Atlantic
   Seaboard, accelerates into the northern Atlantic, models continue to
   indicate that a less amplified split flow will gradually evolve east
   of the Rockies through the western Atlantic.  Another vigorous short
   wave trough is forecast to continue digging within one branch,
   east-southeast of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region through
   much of the Northeast by the end of the period.  It appears that the
   leading edge of an associated reinforcing low-level cold intrusion
   may advance through the southern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity and
   Tennessee Valley by 12Z Thursday, while advancing more slowly
   southward through the Ozark Plateau and central Great Plains.

   In another branch, a low amplitude wave emerging from the Southwest
   is forecast to progress into a lingering (but more weakly) confluent
   regime to the lee of the southern Rockies.  It appears that surface
   troughing across the southern Great Plains will remain weak, with
   little in the way of substantive surface cyclogenesis.  But an area
   of lower pressure may form in association with a remnant cyclonic
   vorticity center progressing into the Texas Panhandle vicinity by
   late Wednesday afternoon.

   In the wake of a prior intrusion of cool/dry air through much of the
   Gulf Basin, guidance continues to indicate that low-level moisture
   return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer will be limited, with
   better boundary-layer moisture not reaching the lower Rio Grande
   Valley/Texas coast until Wednesday night.  

   ...Texas Panhandle vicinity...
   There is considerable spread concerning the evolution and
   progression of the approaching mid-level perturbation and the
   possible weak surface low development.  But guidance generally
   suggests that forcing for ascent near/east of the low may ultimately
   support a developing cluster of thunderstorms by Wednesday evening. 

   Preceding this development, surface dew points near the low may not
   increase much beyond 50 F.  But, with daytime heating, a well-mixed
   boundary layer may become modestly deep, with CAPE increasing to
   around 500 J/kg, and perhaps locally up to 1000 J/kg, beneath
   relatively cold mid-level air including 500 mb temperatures around
   -20 to -22 C.  Although lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields and
   deep-layer shear are forecast to become modest, at best, the
   environment may become supportive of strong initial convection which
   may pose a risk for marginally severe hail and wind.

   ...Central/Southern Texas...
   Beneath stronger southwesterly mid-level flow, more supportive of
   potential for organized severe convection, warm elevated mixed-layer
   air (based near or just above 850 mb) appears likely to strongly
   inhibit vigorous convective development, at least into Wednesday
   evening.  Thereafter, mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling with
   the approaching trough may sufficiently erode the inhibition to
   support thunderstorm initiation, with guidance generally suggesting
   highest probabilities across the Hill Country vicinity.  Based on
   NAM forecast soundings, among other output, boundary-layer moisture
   may not be sufficient to support more than weak CAPE.  But some
   severe hail in stronger storms may not be entirely out of the
   question, before convection becomes more widespread.

   ..Kerr.. 03/18/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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