Victoria’s peak public hospital body has warned elective surgeries could be wound back if demand for emergency care spikes during a predicted surge in Covid cases in the coming weeks.
The state’s Department of Health confirmed to Guardian Australia that four health services across the state were already not meeting the minimum nurse-to-patient ratios.
The Victoria Healthcare Association predicts staff shortages will worsen over the coming weeks and months, as the state braces for the current wave of infections from the Omicron subvariant to peak later this month.
The VHA’s chief executive, Tom Symondson, said despite the easing of elective surgery bans almost two months ago, the state’s hospitals were now experiencing a “difficult time again” due to increasing numbers of Covid cases, backfilling of leave and furloughed staff.
“Staff shortages may worsen in coming weeks and months,” he said.
Symondson said if emergency care spiked, hospitals might have to “adjust” a range of services, including elective surgery procedures, to ensure the sector could “provide safe care for the people who need it most urgently”.
“Public hospitals must retain the final say on how much elective surgery they perform,” he said.
Victoria’s elective surgery waitlist ballooned during the pandemic. At the end of last year, about 80,000 people in Victoria were waiting for elective surgery, but the number is likely to have increased over the past few months. The Andrews government on Sunday unveiled a $1.5bn package to help tackle the backlog of procedures.
Symondson said the main problem hospitals faced was a shortage of staff, as many healthcare workers had to care for children affected by Covid.
“This comes on top of a historic shortage of healthcare workers in Victoria, which has been exacerbated by border closures and burnout,” he said.
“There has been no down time for our hospitals to recover from the extraordinary demand Omicron caused over summer.”
The government has warned there will be a slow decline of Covid cases, with modelling predicting a “long tail” in May due to a range of factors, including more indoor activity as winter approaches.
Guardian Australia understands four health services – which have one or more wards operating outside the minimum nurse-to-patient ratios – failed to reach a deadline set by the Department of Health to cease the use of the surge workforce model by the start of this month.
Surge workforce models allow hospitals to source qualified health professionals who are returning to the workforce or employees from alternative industries, or fast track student’s training to fill critical workforce gaps.
The ratio of one nurse to every four patients was enshrined in Victoria’s legislation in 2015.
A Department of Health spokesperson said the health services using surge workforce models were implementing recovery plans to “return to normal staffing arrangements as soon as possible”.
“Our health services are doing everything they can to manage staffing arrangements despite ongoing pressures from deferred care, Covid-19 admissions and staff furloughs.”
Australian Nursing and Midwifery Federation’s Victorian branch secretary, Lisa Fitzpatrick, said the union was working to establish local agreements with the public health services operating outside minimum ratios.
“With the increasing number of Covid-positive patients requiring hospital admission and the increased numbers of staff required to furlough we are hopeful that this will not jeopardise or delay the return to compliance with the Safe Patient Care Act across the state,” Fitzpatrick said.
A Monash Health spokesperson said when shortages occurred in its maternity wards, registered nurses could be used to supplement shifts.
In July last year, the Andrews government announced a $13.2m boost for the state’s maternity services – under pressure from the Covid-driven baby boom – for 175 extra midwives. But the six-month funding has now run out.
Last week, the health minister, Martin Foley, warned the Omicron subvariant could result in “several hundred” extra hospitalisations each day, but stressed the state’s hospitals had been working hard to prepare for increased demand.
A spokesperson for Foley said the government was investing in “record levels” of health funding.
“A record number of Victorians will receive elective surgery as part of the Andrews Labor government’s Covid Catch-Up Plan – designed to exceed pre-pandemic levels by 25% and get more Victorians the care they need, when they need it.”