(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 090848
SPC AC 090848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A positively tilted upper trough should progress eastward across the
southern/central Plains on Day 4/Sunday. Low-level moisture will
attempt to advance northward across TX in response, but it may be
limited by generally elevated convection to the north of a warm
front. Still, some severe risk may exist across parts of TX, if
thunderstorms can form in the warm sector. This potential still
appears a bit too uncertain to include a 15% severe area for Sunday
at this time.
Medium-range guidance remains in reasonably good agreement that the
upper trough will continue advancing eastward over the lower MS
Valley and Southeast early next week. Severe potential on Day
5/Monday will probably tend to focus over parts of central/east TX
into LA, where the best instability and shear are currently
forecast. However, there are potentially complicating factors, such
as antecedent precipitation and uncertainty regarding the northward
extent of the warm sector. This limits confidence to some extent in
where the greatest severe threat will exist for Monday.
For Day 6/Tuesday, the rich low-level moisture and related warm
sector may tend to be confined fairly near/along the central Gulf
Coast, with the upper trough moving over the Deep South. Too much
uncertainty currently exists to include a 15% severe area for
Tuesday across this region. Predictability of the upper-air pattern
and severe potential across the CONUS becomes even more limited by
Day 7/Wednesday and Day 8/Thursday.
..Gleason.. 05/09/2024
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