SPC AC 271611
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
NEAR-COASTAL SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are possible over parts of
the near-coastal Southeast, as well as portions of central and north
Texas.
...Synopsis...
Minor changes were made to expand the Marginal risk across the
southeast into portions of southern South Carolina and to expand the
Marginal Risk across Texas further south into central Texas to
account for recent trends.
...Southeast CONUS...
A broken line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the
northern Florida Panhandle this morning. This activity will move
offshore through the late morning/afternoon.
A surface cold front/stationary front will slowly move eastward as
weak frontal wave develops across the Carolinas this afternoon and a
surface low deepens across the Gulf. Broken mid-to high level cloud
cover will remain in place across much of the northern Florida
Peninsula northward into the Carolinas in the wake of morning
convection. Strengthening warm air advection in combination with
some breaks in the cloud cover across this region should help to
allow air mass recovery into the afternoon, with RAP forecast
soundings developing around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in a band from
southern South Carolina into the northern Florida Peninsula.
Widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the front by
late afternoon/early evening. A few more robust thunderstorms will
be capable of damaging winds and large hail, given strong deep layer
shear profiles. A few of these stronger storms may extend as far
northward as southern South Carolina where a surface warm
front/stationary front will extend, supporting a northward expansion
of the Marginal risk into this region.
...Central and North Texas....
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across
northern and central Texas this afternoon as temperatures cool aloft
and steep lapse rates overspread modest moisture. This activity will
largely be driven by diurnal heating, with storms developing in the
afternoon and decreasing in coverage through the evening. Given the
cooling aloft, steep lapse rates, and modest deep layer shear. A few
transient supercell structures will be possible with potential for
large hail and gusty winds. The Marginal across this region was
expanded southward to account for recent trends in hi-res guidance
to capture potential for afternoon thunderstorm coverage.
..Thornton/Hart.. 03/27/2024
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