SPC AC 261642

   Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

   Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...

   CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERROR

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated
   very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind
   damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from
   northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into western Missouri, eastern
   Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas.

   ...NE/IA/MO/KS...
   Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across
   KS/NE.  A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over
   central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS.  A
   corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline
   over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to
   moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by
   mid-afternoon.  Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles
   will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with
   very large hail and tornadoes possible.  These storms will progress
   eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening.
    A strong tornado or two is possible in this region.

   ...OK/MO/AR...
   A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened
   and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture
   occurring in the wake of the system.  By mid-afternoon, mid-upper
   60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. 
   Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and
   favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of
   all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. 
   Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR
   this evening.  CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but
   parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given
   the conditional risk of significant severe weather.

   ...Northeast TX...
   A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts
   of northeast and east-central TX today.  A cluster of
   severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco,
   TX.  These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the
   afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. 
   Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with
   sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell
   structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail.  Given
   the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also
   upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH.

   ..Hart.. 04/26/2024

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