Dealing with shortages of goods, truckers

Although many raw materials and products have been in short supply for more than a year, some slackening in supply lines likely will take place in 2022. One problem that will remain is the sluggish movement of goods, which is due to the shortage of truckers. Getty Images

By some measures, the U.S. economy is doing just fine. The broadest measure of the goods and services it produces, gross domestic product, normally chugs along at 2% to 3% growth every year (which is reported quarterly, of course). It dropped precipitously during Q2 2020, shrinking more than 30%, and made up for it in the following quarter. It did very well at the end of 2020 and during the first half of 2021, averaging 5.8% annualized growth, and settled down to a more conventional 2.3% growth in Q3 2021.

By other measures, it’s nowhere close to fine. Big disruptions in trade and transportation over the last 18 months or so revealed just how long, complex, and fragile supply lines had become. Many of those lines are now snarled; untangling them will take time, and while 2022 is likely to be better than 2021, the recovery probably will take many months. Some industries likely will still be feeling the pain into 2023.

It seems that nearly every industrial commodity is in short supply, and many of the shortages are based on several factors. The shortage of lumber last summer was based in part on flooding in some areas, wildfires in others, and labor shortages at sawmills. The supply of integrated circuit (IC) chips started to fall in the middle of 2020 when demand started to fall; later, working and schooling from home drove up the demand for home computers and peripherals. The automobile supply is limited by the availability of ICs. Certainly partial and late steel deliveries play into this shortage.

The overriding problem is that, even as the other shortages ease, the shortage of truckers is likely to hamper commerce for a long time to come.

The American Trucking Associations (ATA) is an industry organization that provides some transportation data, and by its estimates, the industry had about 55,000 open positions for truckers in 2020. In 2021 that number had jumped to 80,000.

Where have all the truckers gone? Good question. It’s really the same question this industry has been asking for decades: Where have all the skilled workers gone? Manufacturing often is a rewarding line of work, but many people still haven’t caught on to that. The industry has difficulties in attracting and retaining workers.

Trucking? It’s stressful and monotonous, and some over-the-road truckers spend weeks away from home. That industry is going to have a much harder time rebuilding its workforce than manufacturing ever will, and the outlook is bleak. The ATA estimates that if current trends continue, the trucker shortage will double in the next eight years. Unless meaningful and lasting steps are taken to improve truckers’ quality of life or compensation, or both, we’re in for a long haul. Late deliveries and persistent shortages will become the norm.