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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jan 21, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 21 04:46:13 UTC 2025 (Print Version | 20250121 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20250121 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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Categorical Day1 1200Z Outlook
 
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 210446

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1046 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today
   through tonight.

   ...Discussion...
   Ridging to the north of the blocking mid-level high centered over
   the mid-latitude eastern Pacific is rebuilding, as an initially
   suppressing short wave perturbation progresses inland across British
   Columbia.  The latter feature is forecast to dig through the
   northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent Great Plains by 12Z Wednesday,
   reinforcing large-scale troughing now encompassing much of central
   and eastern North America.  As this occurs, a pair of initially
   digging downstream short wave perturbations will be forced
   east-northeastward, into and through strong, confluent flow between
   a prominent mid-level ridge centered over the subtropical western
   Atlantic and a broad cyclonic circulation centered over the far
   northeastern Canadian provinces.

   Although down slope flow may contribute to moderating temperatures
   across the northern and central Great Plains, seasonably cold air
   associated with surface ridging entrenched across much of the
   southern Great Plains through Atlantic Seaboard will generally be
   maintained.  It appears that the shallow leading edge of this cold
   air mass will remain south and east of the Florida Peninsula and
   Keys, with little in the way of surface frontal wave development
   across the west central through southeastern Gulf of Mexico due to
   lack of mid/upper support.

   ...Northwestern Gulf coast...
   In the presence of steepening mid-level lapse rates associated with
   differential thermal advection, it still appears that elevated
   moisture return will contribute to weak destabilization (rooted in
   the 800-700 mb layer) as far northwest as upper Texas/Louisiana
   coastal areas by 12-15Z this morning.  This probably will provide
   support for a period of increasing convective development, with
   thermodynamic profiles possibly become conducive to at least some
   lightning production before diminishing by early afternoon.  There
   remains substantive spread concerning this potential, however, and
   thunderstorm probabilities will be maintained at less than 10
   percent, based on objective calibrated guidance from both the NCEP
   SREF and HREF.

   ..Kerr.. 01/21/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

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Page last modified: January 21, 2025
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