SPC AC 251624

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1124 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

   Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
   ACROSS WESTERN KS AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST TX INTO CENTRAL OK...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado or
   two will be possible this evening across western Kansas.  Large
   hail, damaging winds to 70 mph and a few tornadoes will be possible
   tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma.

   ...Synopsis...
   Morning water vapor imagery shows a negatively-tilted shortwave
   trough rotating across UT/AZ, with an associated 70kt mid-level jet
   max moving into NM.  This system will eject into the
   central/southern Plains this evening/tonight, resulting in multiple
   clusters of severe thunderstorm activity.

   ...Western KS...
   A quasi-stationary surface boundary extends from northwest CO into
   northwest KS.  Visible imagery shows broken cloud cover across
   western KS this morning, with dewpoints in the low 60s to the south
   of the front.  Strong heating will likely ensue through the
   afternoon, resulting in deepening mixing to the east of the dryline
   and eventual isolated thunderstorm development.  CAM solutions
   differ significantly on coverage of convection, but it appears
   likely that at least isolated supercells will form along the
   dryline, capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few
   tornadoes (possibly strong).  

   The confidence of initiation is much higher along the warm front
   from northeast CO into northwest KS, and forecast soundings along
   this corridor show strong low-level vertical shear supporting
   supercell structures.  It is uncertain how far north these storms
   can remain surface-based, but there is an apparent tornado risk
   (possibly strong) along the immediate boundary and a large hail risk
   for some distance northward.  This activity will likely spread into
   south-central NE after dark.

   ...TX Panhandle/Western OK...
   As the primary upper trough ejects this evening, large-scale height
   falls and forcing will overspread the dryline across the OK/TX
   Panhandles.  Forecast soundings show a persistent capping inversion
   along the dryline, and CAM guidance generally shows very isolated
   convective initiation.  Any storm that forms will pose a risk of all
   severe hazards, including very large hail.

   Overnight, a strengthening low-level jet over west TX will likely
   lead to a large cluster of thunderstorm.  These storms will track
   northeastward across northwest TX and into western/central OK in the
   pre-dawn hours.  Large hail will be likely with these storms, but
   damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will also be a risk if a more
   organized linear MCS can evolve.

   ..Hart/Moore.. 04/25/2024

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