SPC AC 130550

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
   MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA
   PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts
   are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia,
   and parts of the Florida Panhandle today.

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough will advance eastward out of the southern Plains
   and into the southeast states today. Thunderstorm activity may be
   ongoing across portions of southern Arkansas into northern
   Mississippi at the beginning of the period in response to this
   system. Across the western US, a deepening trough will begin to 
   move inland with a belt of strong mid to upper level flow extending
   across southern California into southern Arizona. A cold front will
   shift eastward across southern California into Arizona through the
   period.

   ...Northwest Mississippi, Central/Southern Alabama, western Georgia
   and the western Florida Panhandle...
   Early in the period, remnant thunderstorm activity from the previous
   period may be ongoing across northern Mississippi into far western
   Alabama. This remains somewhat uncertain, as thunderstorms struggle
   to get going across central Arkansas this morning. Should activity
   continue into Mississippi early this morning, it may pose some risk
   of hail and damaging wind early in the period.

   By the afternoon, diurnal heating across southern Alabama into
   western Georgia should yield modest MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg with
   steepening lapse rates. As mid-level forcing overspreads the region,
   additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be
   possible from southern Alabama into western Georgia and the Florida
   Panhandle, with potential for localized damaging wind and hail with
   stronger cores.

   ...Southern Arizona...
   As a cold front progresses across southern Arizona, shower and
   thunderstorm activity is expected to spread across the region. Flow
   aloft will be quite strong, as a 100 kt jet max digs southward
   across the Mexico border. It is possible some higher momentum flow
   may mix down to the surface at times for a gust to approach severe
   limits within convection. Overall, the weak thermal profile would
   suggest the severe threat will remain low.

   ..Thornton/Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/13/2025

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