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Omicron Covid Variant Poses Very High Global Risk, Says WHO (theguardian.com) 480

The Omicron coronavirus variant is likely to spread internationally, posing a very high global risk of infection surges that could have severe consequences some areas, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Monday. From a report: The UN agency urged its 194 member states to accelerate vaccination of high-priority groups and, in anticipation of increased case numbers, to "ensure mitigation plans are in place" to maintain essential health services. "Omicron has an unprecedented number of spike mutations, some of which are concerning for their potential impact on the trajectory of the pandemic," the WHO said. "The overall global risk related to the new variant ... is assessed as very high." To date, no deaths linked to Omicron had been reported, though further research was needed to assess Omicron's potential to escape protection against immunity induced by vaccines and previous infections, it said.
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Omicron Covid Variant Poses Very High Global Risk, Says WHO

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  • by saloomy ( 2817221 ) on Monday November 29, 2021 @12:50PM (#62030059)
    Lower symptoms. So while it might be more transmissible, it will leave far fewer dead and far fewer needing hospitalization. The big question is if the natural immunity protects against the more deadly Delta variant. If it is contagious enough and has enough of a muted response, perhaps it will behave alike a pseudo vaccine, converting immunity on the vaccine hesitant by giving them a mild bout of Covid. Hopefully.
    • by saloomy ( 2817221 ) on Monday November 29, 2021 @12:52PM (#62030073)
      Source for Extremely Mild symptoms: the doctor who discovered the variant: https://www.standard.co.uk/vid... [standard.co.uk]
      • by quantaman ( 517394 ) on Monday November 29, 2021 @01:33PM (#62030275)

        Source for Extremely Mild symptoms: the doctor who discovered the variant: https://www.standard.co.uk/vid... [standard.co.uk]

        That's possibly true (and consistent with the rule that diseases generally evolve to become more contagious but less virulent) but it's way too early to be sure.

        She started seeing the variant on the 18th, so she's literally talking from the experience of about 10 days, not even time for an infection to fully run its course (and it wasn't clear of the vaccination/past infection status of the patients).

        Certainly a lockdown isn't going to keep it in South Africa, but it will give the medical community some time to figure out what they're dealing with before it turns into a full wave so that wave will pass with fewer fatalities.

        • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

          by saloomy ( 2817221 )
          Mild courses generally resolve in a day or two, and that was the state of the 3,000 persons she identified as having the Omicron variant. That is a decent sample size to make some preliminary findings, especially when none died or ended up in hospital. Lockdowns on the other hand are politically expensive, and have their own human toll. Many have died from drug overdoses, and depression, anxiety, and social isolation has sky-rocketed incidents of suicide. All that is to say nothing of the gross economic imp
          • by cmseagle ( 1195671 ) on Monday November 29, 2021 @01:44PM (#62030345)

            From the UK: [samaritans.org]

            Fortunately, provisional suicide rates for 2020 in England has found no evidence that national suicide rates increased. And evidence from the National Confidential Inquiry (NCISH) and the University of Manchester suggests suicide rates during the first national lockdown in England have not been impacted in the way that many of us were concerned about. Real-time data from other nations in the UK and Ireland is not available as surveillance systems are not currently widespread, though some are under development.

            ...

            Rates of self-harm appear to have remained stable throughout the pandemic. The UCL Covid-19 Social Study, which has run weekly throughout the time since restrictions began, consistently found that around 2% of people report self-harming in the past week.

            Lockdowns have costs. I haven't seen evidence that "skyrocketing" suicide rates are one of them.

        • by mspohr ( 589790 )

          If you think about the evolution of the virus, mutants which are more contagious would have an advantage. Also, mutants which caused less severe disease would have an advantage (better to have people walking around and spreading the virus than isolated in bed or dead).
          So hopefully this variant will follow this pattern and be less deadly. The important question which needs to be answered is whether or not this variant induces strong immunity. If it induces strong immunity, it might get the point where we hav

      • Source for Extremely Mild symptoms: the doctor who discovered the variant: https://www.standard.co.uk/vid... [standard.co.uk]

        Ban him from social media!!! We will not tolerate this misinformation!

        /s

    • by jellomizer ( 103300 ) on Monday November 29, 2021 @01:20PM (#62030205)

      However the problem is they are countries without the resources to vaccinate its population, the the countries that do have the resource has such an entitled population that think vaccination is an upfront to freedom. That these viruses spread, and mutate over time. Actually there is not enough data to explain how bad Omicron is yet in terms of symptoms. But as it spreads and longer it goes from host to host, the higher chance of an other mutation, where it could be more deadly, and/or be a worse spreader.

      The reason that Vaccination is strongly encouraged, is not because anyone really cares that if you catch it and feel ill and perhaps get better or perhaps die, as a member of society we need to make sure that every one of us, is not causing harm to the society by making yourself a possible spreader, and a host for mutations.

      • But as it spreads and longer it goes from host to host, the higher chance of an other mutation, where it could be more deadly, and/or be a worse spreader.

        It must be remembered that by the standards of a virus, lethality and severe symptoms are a BAD mutation. What a virus wants (to the extent that virii "want" anything) is relatively mild symptoms - that way people that can make vaccines don't bother to try to drive the virus into extinction (think Smallpox - if all it did was give you a mild rash for a w

        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          by mysidia ( 191772 )

          by the standards of a virus, lethality and severe symptoms are a BAD mutation. What a virus wants ...

          A virus does not want anything in regard to variations: they're just random evolutions which arise that either reproduce well and become dominant among infections and spread well or not. Selection pressure on a virus spread between humans is towards overcoming defenses and being as easily and frequently spread by its host as possible (That tends to favor higher infectiveness and greater severity), BUT for

      • by jabuzz ( 182671 )

        Noting that vaccine supply significantly outstrips uptake in South Africa.

        The reason to get vaccinated is you are far less likely to need hospitalization if you are vaccinated and take up an ICU bed and/or divert nurses and doctors from caring for other patients.

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Eloking ( 877834 )

      Lower symptoms. So while it might be more transmissible, it will leave far fewer dead and far fewer needing hospitalization. The big question is if the natural immunity protects against the more deadly Delta variant. If it is contagious enough and has enough of a muted response, perhaps it will behave alike a pseudo vaccine, converting immunity on the vaccine hesitant by giving them a mild bout of Covid. Hopefully.

      I'm not a medical doctor, but isn't it a little soon to say the new variant has lower symptoms? I probably missed something, but my understanding is that contaminated people in rich countries are travelers that got their vaccine shot and, thus, can be expected to have lower symptoms.

      Do we have any credible data about the effect on unvaccinated people?

      • I'm not a medical doctor, but isn't it a little soon to say the new variant has lower symptoms?

        A medical doctor, the one with the most experience with the Omicron variant who discovered it, has said the symptoms are (to use her words): "Extremely mild".

        It is my conjecture that if this is the case, and it is more contagious, it will confer some naturally acquired immunity on the unvaccinated, and perhaps enough to dampen the spread of the less contagious, but more virulent Delta variant. Hopefully.

        • by Eloking ( 877834 )

          I'm not a medical doctor, but isn't it a little soon to say the new variant has lower symptoms?

          A medical doctor, the one with the most experience with the Omicron variant who discovered it, has said the symptoms are (to use her words): "Extremely mild".

          It is my conjecture that if this is the case, and it is more contagious, it will confer some naturally acquired immunity on the unvaccinated, and perhaps enough to dampen the spread of the less contagious, but more virulent Delta variant. Hopefully.

          Yes I did she her video. Of course, she's a doctor so her opinion is worth more than mine on the matter. However, I'm also a man of science. So I'll allow myself a little skepticism about her statement on two accounts.

          * First, she's making an hypothesis on a very restricted sample in a very short period (less than 10 days).
          * Second, there's no peer review.

          There's hope, but I would leave it as that for now until more research is made.

          • However, I'm also a man of science.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

            * First, she's making an hypothesis on a very restricted sample in a very short period (less than 10 days).

            Mild cases resolve in far less time, one to three days on average. She has observed this.

            * Second, there's no peer review.

            Doesn't mean it isn't worth listening to. Today she is the most experienced person WRT the Omicron variant, so, like I said (and you seconded), we remain hopeful that her data lies in the normal longer-term distribution of Omicron cases.

            Again though, IF it remains, I hope exposure to Omicron conveys immunity to Delta. It will act as a pseudo-vaccine for the population that remains un

        • Doctors should be more worried about what happens when they get to the end of the Greek alphabet. Will they switch to Cyrillic, or will everyone have to turn to the periodic table? "The Boron variant has just been discovered. Get your umpteenth booster shot now!"
    • as long as you're not one of the hospitalized and/or dead. Not trying to raise alarms, just glad to see that this time we're taking this more seriously, with a larger, better coordinated global response. Meanwhile I just got my booster a week ago.
      • With the Omicron variant, there were none hospitalized or dead among the 3000+ persons identified in S. Africa who had it. The cases were all "Extremely mild".
    • This variant is expected to have a lower fatality RATE and a higher transmission rate. That does NOT mean it will have a lower (or higher) *number* of fatalities.

      Suppose the fatality RATE of omicron is half of the delta rate.
      While the transmissibility means four times as many people get infected with it. That would mean the number of fatalities from omicron will be twice as many as delta.

      So this simply isn't true:
      > it will leave far fewer dead and far fewer needing hospitalization

      No.
      Fatalities = fatali

      • Re: (Score:2, Troll)

        by saloomy ( 2817221 )

        This variant is expected to have a lower fatality RATE and a higher transmission rate. That does NOT mean it will have a lower (or higher) *number* of fatalities.

        It's fatality rate is zero among those who have already had it, suggesting its far fewer numbers. That is why I said "IF this is true".

        So this simply isn't true:

        The data available today, according to the doctor who discovered it, suggests it actually is true.

        Fatalities = fatality rate X number of people infected

        0 people have died. So if the number of people infected is all 7 billion of us, and the rate is still 0, it will still have a lower number of fatalities than Delta. That is maths.

        Further, omicron has more subvariants, more mutations.

        Citation needed. You are fear mongering here.

        Become more deadly than it is now

        Citation Needed. Fear mongering, without any evidenc

    • We can hope but it won't happen. Here's a few counterpoints. First the major issue is the immunological memory. People complaining about the vaccine seem to love to point this out. That the vaccine doesn't seem to provide the protect we should expect from a vaccine and that the need for booster shots prove this. Significant Immunological memory towards this pathogen could take a long fucking time (generations).

      Likewise it's already clear the virus has high mutability and that re-infection is possible with c

      • You should read the post below yours. It is known that viruses mutate towards more contagious but less virulent versions of themselves, because evolution incentivizes them to spread more. It is easier to do so with mild symptoms, that have non-fatal responses. To you, it is a pathogen and a parasite. But, to the virus, you are a symbiotic host.
    • by taustin ( 171655 )

      Lower symptoms. So while it might be more transmissible, it will leave far fewer dead and far fewer needing hospitalization.

      Viruses that mutate frequently tend to mutate towards the most common varieties, especially when a particular variant is extreme to begin with, and more especially when it's extreme in mortality rates.

      The most common variant of the coronavirus is, of course, the common cold, which is insanely contagious, and very, very mild.

      So there's no surprises here. It continues to follow the historical pattern of most viral pandemics, and especially the 1918-19 flu pandemic (both medically and socially). Which means we

    • That could be true, but travel ban to slow its spread may be the right move until we can confirm how lethal it is and to what demographic. You cannot base a potentially dangerous policy on anecdotal evidence.

    • by hey! ( 33014 )

      Yes, that's hopeful news, but I wouldn't go too far in extrapolating early observation into different populations and circumstances, or even count on those observations holding up. In the real world data is either hard to come by, or so easy to come by it skews your picture of what's happening. It takes time to sort things out.

      It's OK to feel hopeful, just as long as we keep hedging our bets. We may be getting a lucky break here, but we shouldn't rely on luck to get through this. The pandemic been partic

  • What we know (Score:4, Informative)

    by OrangeTide ( 124937 ) on Monday November 29, 2021 @12:51PM (#62030063) Homepage Journal

    What we know today? Not much.

    What can the average person who sees news head lines do about it today? Not much.

    Prepare to be prepared to listen to some recommendations coming soonishly.

    • Prepare to be prepared to listen to some recommendations coming soonishly.

      I'm preparing heavily to listen. Refreshing my Facebook feed every minute. Latest updates: Omicron is little more than a Greek vowel and the vaccines make you talk like Christopher Walken. /s

  • But all my Covid information comes from podcasts and social media. Free thinkers unite!

    • Bah, I use only tarot cards and the inners of a goat. You people and your newfangled "technology"
      • Tarot cards tell you about people, not events. You might as well said you read Covid's palm.

        Now oracle bones would be a different story.

        So the humor of your post is you show a lack of education through comparing the uneducated to mystical practices which you, yourself are not educated on.

    • There is one group that is getting information from amateurs who are learning to digest the data and draw their own conclusions and risk assessment, who's incentive is to best navigate this virus for themselves and their loved ones and community.

      There is another group that get their information from institutions who's funding and clout are based on the prospects that the virus is bad and they are sorely needed to guide the rest of us. The problem is the incentives. Personally I think Fauci is the worst off
      • Your comments not all that bad except for the false dichotomy.

      • There is one group that is getting information from amateurs who are learning to digest the data and draw their own conclusions and risk assessment, who's incentive is to best navigate this virus for themselves and their loved ones and community.

        Yeah I trust amateurs who haven't even taken a class on statistics to read medical studies and give advice. Like hiring a guy off the street to build a deck, what can possibly go wrong?

        There is another group that get their information from institutions who's funding and clout are based on the prospects that the virus is bad and they are sorely needed to guide the rest of us. The problem is the incentives. Personally I think Fauci is the worst offender. His cloud and celebrity has been exponentially raised by the pandemic, and the worse it is, the more people will believe we should be listening to him. For a guy who hung a life-sized portrait in his office, I think at this point he is fear mongering to continue elevating his importance and clout.

        Ah yes the financial conspiracy angle, they're all in on it. Every single one. Fauci is a world class immunologist and even worked for the Reagan administration. If you can recommend someone better I'd love to hear it.

        • Fauci is a world class immunologist and even worked for the Reagan administration. If you can recommend someone better I'd love to hear it.

          I dunno....his reaction and recommendations about AIDS isn't terribly reassuring.

          He's not ever really been on the ball for much of his career.

      • by hey! ( 33014 )

        Yep. *Every* question in science can be reduced to this: is the answer endorsed by good people like me whom I identify with, or bad people whose motivations I can't trust. Every... single... one.

        Once you realize this, you need never be in doubt again. You may, however, be wrong a lot of the time.

  • Re: (Score:2, Troll)

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

The key elements in human thinking are not numbers but labels of fuzzy sets. -- L. Zadeh

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