SPC AC 181655

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1155 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are still possible
   tomorrow (Friday) over parts of the Southeast.

   ...Synopsis...
   A broad mid-level trough will traverse Ontario and Quebec, with
   mainly zonal flow overspreading the central and northern CONUS
   tomorrow (Friday). Meanwhile, a smaller mid-level trough is poised
   to eject into the southern High Plains at the end of the period. A
   surface cold front will sweep across the eastern U.S. in advance of
   the first mid-level trough, providing enough low-level ascent to
   support scattered strong thunderstorm development given adequate
   buoyancy and vertical wind shear preceding the front. For Friday
   night into Saturday morning, the approach of the southwestern
   mid-level trough will encourage low-level jet development over the
   southern Plains, with scattered to widespread thunderstorm
   development expected along the low-level jet terminus, where
   low-level convergence will be strongest.

   ...Parts of the Southeast toward the Carolina Piedmont...
   Surface temperatures are expected to warm above 80 F amid low to mid
   60s F dewpoints ahead of the surface cold front, boosting SBCAPE
   from 1000-2000 J/kg across the warm sector. Modest westerly 500 mb
   flow from the glancing mid-level trough will overspread a 15-20 kt
   southwesterly 850 mb wind field, resulting in elongated hodographs
   and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. As such, organized multicells
   and transient supercells are expected to initiate ahead of the cold
   front by afternoon, accompanied by occasional instances of hail and
   gusty winds. A couple instances of severe hail/wind could occur with
   some of the stronger storms, especially if a more pronounced
   supercell structure can become established.

   ...Central and northern Texas...
   A strongly capped boundary layer is expected to reside across much
   of TX through the period, limiting the chances for surface-based
   convective initiation. As the low level jet strengthens overnight,
   the jet terminus is expected to become situated somewhere near the
   Red River, where isentropic ascent should lift elevated buoyant
   parcels to their LFC and initiate scattered to potentially numerous
   thunderstorms. LFCs are expected to be between 700-600 mb, which
   should restrict CAPE to thin profiles, limiting severe hail
   production. Nonetheless, given elongated hodographs and steep
   mid-level lapse rates, at least small hail is possible and a sparse
   instance of severe hail cannot be ruled out, though the coverage
   seems too isolated/localized to warrant probabilities at this time.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/18/2024

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