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    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 18, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 18 12:40:28 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20240318 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240318 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 181240

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0740 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

   Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND MUCH OF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated large hail and wind damage is possible this afternoon
   across central Florida and along much of the Florida Atlantic coast.

   ...FL this afternoon...
   A northern stream shortwave trough will dig from the mid MS Valley
   this morning to the southern Appalachians this evening and off the
   Atlantic coast by early Tuesday.  An associated stalled surface
   front across north FL this morning will begin to accelerate
   southeastward across the peninsula this evening through early
   Tuesday.  The more pronounced midlevel height falls and forcing for
   ascent will pass north of FL, leaving shallow ascent along the front
   and/or differential heating boundaries (from convection moving
   inland from the northeast Gulf of Mexico this morning) to focus
   thunderstorm development.  Forecast soundings suggest that moderate
   buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg), steep low-level lapse rates and 50
   kt midlevel flow with relatively straight hodographs could support a
   supercell capable of producing isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in
   diameter) and damaging gusts near 60 mph.  The severe threat will
   peak by early-mid afternoon and then diminish into this evening. 

   ...AZ/southern CA through this evening...
   As part of a Rex block, a closed low over AZ will drift westward
   today as an embedded speed max pivots from northern AZ toward
   southern CA.  Low-level moisture will remain modest, but cool
   midlevel temperatures and daytime heating will contribute to at
   least weak buoyancy (SBCAPE of 250-750 J/kg).  A few clusters of
   storms will form in the main band of ascent over the rim this
   afternoon, while other storms are expected to spread southwestward
   off the higher terrain toward the southern CA coast.  The threat for
   severe storms will remain quite low, but the strongest storms could
   produce gusty outflow winds and small hail.

   ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/18/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: March 18, 2024
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