Coronavirus infections in England have increased to the same levels seen at the height of the second wave in January, data has revealed, with one in 50 people in the community having the virus last week.
According to figures from the Office for National Statistics, based on swabs collected from randomly selected households, an estimated 2% of people had Covid in the week ending 22 October – about 1,102,800 people. Such levels were last seen in the weeks around late December and early January, when the second wave of Covid swept across the country.
The figures mark a rise on the week before, when about one in 55 people in the community in England were thought to have Covid. Such levels were last seen in the weeks around late December and early January, when the second wave of Covid swept across the country.
In Wales, the latest estimates are even higher, with an estimated one in 40 people thought to have had Covid in the week ending 22 October, compared with about one in 75 in Northern Ireland and Scotland.
The survey further revealed that infection levels rose in all age groups that week, except for those in school year 12 to aged 34 years where the trend was uncertain. More than 9% of children in school years 7 to 11 were infected in the most recent week, the ONS data suggests.
The data also suggests that the situation is far from uniform across England. While infection levels have risen in regions including the east Midlands, West Midlands, London and the south-west, in some areas – such as the north-west and north-east – the trend was unclear.
The findings may, at first glance, appear to contrast with daily case data reported on the government’s coronavirus dashboard, which shows that while confirmed cases rose throughout much of October, they have recently shown signs of stalling.
However, the two are not necessarily at odds. While the ONS survey records both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections, and is less affected by changes in testing behaviour than the daily case figures, the survey records both existing and new infections. As experts have previously noted, people can test positive for some time, meaning changes in the ONS data lag behind the daily reported cases by around two weeks.
While experts say it is too soon to be sure a peak in daily cases has been reached, they suggest there is cause for hope, with modelling indicating cases may level off or fall in the coming weeks – not least because it is thought the high level of infection among children will eventually lead to high levels of immunity.
Dr Rhiannon Yapp, co-lead for the Covid-19 Infection Survey, said it was crucial infection rates were monitored as winter approached.
“Infection rates in England are now at similar levels to when the year began, with infections amongst school age children the highest recorded in our survey. Infections across the other UK nations are also high,” she said.
“Hopefully, the success of vaccination programmes will protect many in older age groups from developing severe symptoms.”
The latest ONS figures come as documents from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) offer further insights into expert modelling, including setting out potential measures that may be necessary should cases rapidly begin to rise.
The documents reveal such actions depend upon levels of precautionary behaviour, and what is driving the surge. “At the current level of precautionary behaviour, to prevent the doubling of infection every week would require at least the same level of behaviour as seen in the third lockdown,” one document notes.