SPC AC 240600

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL
   KS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late Thursday
   afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and
   southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a
   couple strong tornadoes will all be possible.

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is still forecast to
   take on an increasingly negative tilt as it moves eastward towards
   the central/southern Plains by Thursday night into Friday morning.
   In response, a deepening surface low will move from the central High
   Plains toward northwest KS/southwest NE by late Thursday night into
   Friday morning. A surface boundary will move northward as a warm
   front across the central Plains through the day, though convective
   outflow may limit its progress across parts of central/western KS.
   Along/south of the warm front, relatively rich low-level moisture
   will stream northward to the east of a dryline that will become
   established from the eastern TX Panhandle into western KS and
   eastern CO. 

   ...Southern/central Great Plains...
   Potential for a few intense supercells remains evident across
   western KS into western OK and the OK/TX Panhandles, with a threat
   for very large hail, severe wind gusts, and possibly a couple of
   strong tornadoes. Isolated supercells will also be possible into
   parts of northwest KS, southwest NE, and northeast CO. Some
   overnight severe potential also remains evident farther east into
   central KS/OK and north TX. 

   Substantial convection may be ongoing at the start of the period
   across parts of eastern KS/OK. While this convection will likely
   remain elevated, some threat for hail and isolated damaging gusts
   cannot be ruled out through much of the day.This convection may
   persist through much of the day, driven by persistent low-level warm
   advection to the cool side of the effective outflow. Should this
   occur, outflow may tend to spread westward through the day,
   providing a limit to the eastward extent of higher-end severe
   potential. 

   Otherwise, a favorable conditional supercell environment is still
   expected to develop along/ahead of the dryline from western KS/OK
   into the OK/TX Panhandles, as low-level and deep-layer shear
   increase across a moderately to strongly unstable environment. While
   stronger ascent may not arrive across a broader portion of the
   central/southern Great Plains until evening, isolated supercell
   development will be possible by late afternoon. 

   Steep midlevel lapse rates will support an initial threat of very
   large hail. The tornado threat will also increase with any supercell
   that persists into the evening, with low-level shear/SRH expected to
   increase with time and eastward extent, and any longer-lived
   supercells could pose a strong tornado threat. Uncertainty remains
   regarding the number of supercells that develop, and the longevity
   of any such cells into the evening given that outflow may begin
   impinging on the warm sector from the east.  

   Another round of potentially severe storms may develop late Thursday
   night into Friday morning along the Pacific front/dryline. Moderate
   instability and strong deep-layer shear will support organized
   convection with this activity, which may tend to become linear with
   time. The overnight storms could pose some threat for all severe
   hazards, though the magnitude of the threat remains uncertain due to
   lingering near-surface stability and the unfavorable time of day. 

   ...Parts of the central/northern High Plains...
   Near/north of the deepening surface, relatively moist low-level
   southeasterly flow beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support
   increasing instability through the day. Favorable deep-layer shear
   will support isolated supercell potential by mid/late afternoon
   across northeast CO and adjacent portions of southwest NE and
   northwest KS. Very large hail (potentially 2-2.5 inches in diameter)
   will likely be the primary threat, though cells in the vicinity of
   the effective warm front will also be capable of producing a tornado
   or two. 

   Farther north, moderate buoyancy will support scattered diurnal
   thunderstorm development into the Black Hills vicinity. Deep-layer
   shear will be weaker in this area, but may still be sufficient for
   modestly organized storms capable of large hail.

   ..Dean.. 04/24/2024

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