SPC AC 160059

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0759 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

   Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   ENH RISK OVER THE PLAINS...AND ACROSS A SMALL PART OF THE MIDDLE
   ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
   Great Plains tonight. Several tornadoes, perhaps strong, large to
   very large hail, and damaging wind gusts all appear possible.
   Scattered severe gusts will linger this evening across portions of
   the middle Atlantic.

   ...01z Update...

   Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts moistening at midlevels
   across southwestern NE/western KS into the eastern OK Panhandle.
   This is likely the leading edge of large-scale ascent that is
   spreading into the central Plains. Over the last hour or so,
   boundary-layer cu have gradually deepened along the dryline and
   lightning may soon develop with strengthening updrafts. Supercells
   are expected to evolve along this corridor soon and subsequent
   movement downstream into the central Plains is anticipated, in line
   with 20z outlook. Environmental shear/buoyancy favor very large
   hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

   Farther south across the TX South Plains, strong surface heating has
   contributed to dry adiabatic surface-3km lapse rates. 00z sounding
   from MAF supports this and surface-6km bulk shear is also around
   60kt. Earlier thunderstorm activity that evolved over northwest TX
   has struggled to organize, but agitated boundary-layer cu might
   organize along the dryline between LBB-ABI. Increasing large-scale
   ascent could encourage upscale growth over the next few hours.

   Across the middle Atlantic, a narrow corridor of instability has yet
   to be overturned across southeastern VA, immediately ahead of
   convection that is sagging into this region. 00z soundings from
   GSO/MHX do not exhibit appreciable buoyancy with seasonally low PWs
   farther south. Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, continues
   for the next few hours with convection has it settles south toward
   the VA/NC border. Otherwise, overall severe risk appears to be
   gradually lowering.

   ..Darrow.. 04/16/2024

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